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Predicting 2025 wheat pricesPredicting 2025 wheat prices

Grain Scoops: Converting planted wheat to cash requires predicting bushels per acre and price, both of which are unpredictable. Learn more about an approach that provides a starting point for predicting prices.

Kim Anderson

January 17, 2025

4 Min Read
Grain Scoops

It’s the first of the year and it’s time to start thinking about how to convert planted wheat into cash. This includes keeping the wheat alive, healthy, feeding (fertility), harvesting and selling it. The driving forces in all these decisions are bushels per acre and price. Both are very unpredictable. Yet predictions must be made before decisions can be made. 

I’ll be the first to say that it’s extremely difficult (if not impossible) to accurately predict prices. I do have a standing offer to any plant and soil scientist that I can predict prices more accurately than they can predict yield. 

A caveat: “Policy comes, and policy goes, but weather determines price.” (Dr. Luther Tweeten, 1984). Weather is also a major factor in production. The 10 p.m. meteorologist is someone we all watch. I’ll leave it to each farmer to predict their target yield. Starting with good production records is essential. 

 Research has shown that the current price is the most accurate single predictor of prices. At the minimum, the current price is the place to start. 

Note: I believe that a relatively safe way to sell wheat (over time/years) is to stagger wheat sales throughout the June through August period for each harvest.  

At this writing, wheat may be forward contracted for 2025 harvest delivery in Pond Creek, Okla., for $5.22 (KEN25 - $0.50); in Perryton, Texas, for $5.17 (KEN - $0.55); and in Weatherford, Okla., for $4.97 (KEN - $0.75). The current prices are $5 (KEH25 -$0.55) in Pond Creek, $4.85 (KEH25 - $0.70) in Perryton and $4.75 (KEH25 - $0.80) in Weatherford. 

Related:Italian rye grass is ‘900-pound gorilla’

Using average Pond Creek, Okla., wheat prices for the years 2009 through 2024, the average difference between the average January and the average harvest (June through August) prices is $0.04 (Table 1). This implies that, on average, the forward contract price is a pretty good indicator of the average harvest price. This also implies that the Pond Creek June through August average price will be $5.26 ($5.22 + $0.04). 

During the period 2009 through 2024, the error range of the January price predictor was from $0.93 (2016) below the predicted price to $1.57 (2018) above the predicted price. Harvest wheat prices were below the projected average price nine out of 16 years and above the projected average price seven years.  

So, for the 2025 wheat harvest, the predicted average price is $5.26 with a potential range of $4.33 ($5.26 - $0.93) and $6.83 ($5.26 + $1.57). The range may be tightened up a bit by using the average below (-$0.57) and average above ($0.83) ranges. This produces a price range of $4.69 to $6.09. 

Related:2025 wheat market: Focus on what is controllable

This approach provides a starting point for predicting prices. Additional information may be obtained from the current and projected supply and demand factors and average prices. The average Pond Creek harvest price for the 2009 through 2024 period is $5.76 with a range from $3.24 to $9.02. 

On June 1, 2025, the world’s wheat stocks-to-use (STU) ratio is projected to be 32% compared to a 2009 through 2024 (16-year) average of 34%. The U.S. hard red winter wheat STU ratio is projected to be 46%, compared to a 45% average.  

Of the world major exporting countries, only Argentina’s STU ratio is projected to be significantly above average. Australia, Canada, the EU, Russia and Ukraine’s STU is projected to be significantly below average. This implies tight exportable wheat supplies. 

For planning purposes, a starting point for 2025 wheat harvest prices for Pond Creek, Okla., is $5.26.  The STU ratios imply that the price may be adjusted closer to the $5.76 16-year average price.     

Table 1. Pond Creek Oklahoma average January and average harvesta prices. 

Year 

January 

Harvesta

Change 

2009 

$5.52 

$5.12 

-$0.40 

2010 

$4.35 

$4.83 

$0.48 

 2011 

$7.88 

$7.68 

-$0.20 

2012 

$6.80 

$7.74 

$0.94 

2013 

$7.81 

$6.92 

-$0.89 

2014 

$6.07 

$6.44 

$0.37 

2015 

$5.65 

$4.99 

-$0.66 

2016 

$4.17 

$3.24 

-$0.93 

2017 

$3.50 

$4.05 

$0.55 

2018 

$3.73 

$5.30 

$1.57 

2019 

$4.86 

$4.19 

-$0.67 

2020 

$4.59 

$4.16 

-$0.43 

2021 

$5.92 

$6.34 

$0.42 

2022 

$7.56 

$9.02 

$1.46 

2023 

$8.06 

$7.44 

-$0.62 

2024 

$5.69 

$5.35 

-$0.34 

 Avg  

$5.76 

$5.80 

$0.04 

aHarvest prices are average June through August prices. 

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