At this writing, wheat may be sold in Pond Creek, Okla., for $5.06. The Altus, Okla., price is $4.71, and the Perryton, Texas, wheat price is $4.95. Oklahoma and Texas wheat prices haven’t been this low since October 2020, which was before COVID-19 and the Russian/Ukraine war caused wheat prices to increase (Figure 1). 

Research indicates COVID was partially responsible for wheat prices increasing from about $4.50 to $8 (October 2020 to February 2022). The Russian/Ukraine war caused wheat prices to increase from $8 to $12.70 (February 2022 to May 2022).  

An indication that the wheat price increase from $4.50 to $12.70 was the result of COVID and the war is the fact that from 2018 to 2023, world wheat production increased from 26.8 billion bushels to 29 billion bushels. Wheat production set a record high each year for five consecutive years. Currently, this trend continues with the 2024 world wheat production projected at a record high of 29.3 billion bushels.  

COVID caused increased demand for wheat and disrupted the transportation system, which effectively reduced the available wheat supply. The war disrupted wheat exports out of the Black Sea region, which is the largest supplier of exported wheat. 

Wheat market prices appear to have returned to the situation where prices are determined by normal measures (if there is any such thing) of the wheat supply-and-demand situation. The best single measure of the wheat supply and demand may be the stock-to-use ratios. These ratios include the world, Russia, all U.S. wheat, and U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat. 

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The price benchmarks used are the average June 2009 through May 2024 prices. The 2009/10 wheat marketing year through 2023/24 wheat marketing year average U.S. wheat price was $6. The average Oklahoma price was $5.80.  

The world’s 2024/25 wheat marketing year stocks-to-use ratio (projected May 31, 2025, wheat ending stocks divided by projected 2024/25 wheat marketing year use) is projected to be 32%. The average 2009/10 through 2023/24 world wheat stocks-to-use ratio is 34%. The world wheat stocks-to-use situation implies average to slightly above-average wheat prices. 

Russia’s 2024/25 wheat stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 8% compared to a 2009/10 through 2023/24 average of 15%. Russia’s projected stocks-to-use ratio implies Russia’s wheat supply may get relatively tight. This implies above-average prices, at least in the Black Sea region, during the 2024/25 wheat marketing year. 

The U.S. all wheat 2024/25 stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 44%. The 2009/10 through 2024/24 marketing year average U.S. stocks-to-use ratio was 41%. This implies below-average prices. 

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The U.S. HRW wheat 2024/25 marketing year stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 52% compared to the 2009/10 through 2023/24 marketing years average of 50%. This implies below-average prices. 

What we have is the world and Russian wheat situation indicating above-average prices, and the U.S. wheat situation indicating below-average prices.  

The major wheat exporters (in order of percentage) are Russia (23%), the E.U. (16%), Canada (12%), the U.S. (10.5%), Australia (10.3%), Ukraine (6.1%), and Argentina (5.4%). Of these exporters, only the U.S. (+3%) and Argentina (+4%) have projected above-average 2024/25 wheat stocks-to-use ratios. 

There is a possibility that 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports may exceed projections, resulting in lower stocks-to-use ratios and average or better prices. It’s a question of how big a price impact below-average world stocks-to-use ratios have on wheat prices compared to above-average U.S. stocks-to-use ratios.