On average, by Sept. 1, 80% of the world’s calendar year wheat has been harvested (Figure 1). Completing the Northern Hemisphere harvest, an additional 9% will be harvested in September. The remaining 11% of the world’s wheat will be harvested in the Southern Hemisphere. 

Even though Australia and Argentina produce only 6% of the world’s wheat, these two countries are projected to export 15% of world wheat exports, which makes them influential players in the export market. Australia exports hard white winter wheat and Argentina exports hard red winter wheat, which compete with Oklahoma and Texas exported wheat. 

By Sept. 1, 89% of the Northern Hemisphere’s wheat will be harvested. Australia and Argentina’s harvests have the highest potential to impact U.S. wheat prices. 

The August WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) projects the 2024/25 wheat marketing year average wheat price to be $5.70. The average Oklahoma and Texas wheat price tends to average $0.20 less than the U.S. average ($5.50 vs. $5.70). Note that the Pond Creek, Okla., wheat price is often remarkably close to Oklahoma’s average price. 

As of this writing, the cash wheat price in Pond Creek is $5.05. The Perryton, Texas, cash wheat price is $0.10 less, and the wheat price in Altus, Okla., is $0.35 less. Current wheat prices are well below projected WASDE (USDA) prices. 

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Wheat may be forward contracted for 2025 harvest delivery in Pond Creek for $5.33 (KEN25 - $0.55). The Perryton, Texas, 2025 forward contract price is $5.28 (KEN25 - $0.60).  

When predicting prices, key numbers to use are the average price and the average stocks-to-use (S-T-U) ratios. The marketing years 2009/10 through 2023/24 (15 years) will be used to determine the averages.  

The average U.S. wheat price (2009/10 – 2023/24) is $6.02. The average Oklahoma wheat price is $5.79, and the average Texas price is $5.86. The August WASDE projected the 2024/25 U.S. average annual wheat price to be $5.70, which is about $0.30 less than the 15-year average price. 

The world’s 2024/25 wheat marketing-year S-T-U ratio is projected to be 32% compared to a 15-year average of 34%. Of the world’s wheat major exporting countries (Figure 2), only Argentina is projected to have an above-average S-T-U ratio.  

The U.S. S-T-U ratio is projected to be 42% compared to a 15-year average of 45%. Major exporters include Russia’s projected S-T-U ratio of 8% compared to a 15% average. Canada’s 2024/25 S-T-U ratio is projected to be 9% compared to a 20% average. The European Union’s 

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 S-T-U ratio is projected to be 7% compared to a 10% average.  

U.S. hard red winter wheat’s (HRW) S-T-U ratio is projected to be 52% compared to a 50% average. Except for U.S. HRW wheat and Argentina’s S-T-U ratios, wheat prices would be expected to be above average (below average S-T-U ratios). 

About 80% of the 2024/25 world wheat crop has been harvested. World wheat production is projected to be a record 29.3 billion bushels. Yet, the world’s wheat S-T-U ratio is projected to be 32% compared to a 34% average. 

Oklahoma and Texas wheat prices are currently near $5.05 compared to a $5.80 average price. Wheat prices may stay below average, but a $0.75 below the 15-year average or $0.45 below USDA projected average annual price is difficult to justify. 

With the 2024 U.S. wheat crop in the bin, and 80% of the world's wheat harvested, export demand is about the only thing left to cause higher prices.