Perhaps a weed story has never begun with information from a pair of ag economists, but this one does. University of Illinois Extension ag economists Nick Paulsen and Gary Schnitkey revised their 2024 crop budgets not once, but twice, after preparing them in August 2023. They issued a revision in January and a final revision in the Illinois Bulletin on June 25. Both times, expected prices for corn and soybeans in the budget dropped.

Some input prices dropped, but not enough to offset declining crop prices. The final breakeven price for corn, not counting land, for a central Illinois farm is $3.40 per bushel, and $4.98 per bushel counting land. For soybeans, it is $7.11 and $12.10 per bushel, respectively. The numbers including land charges are far above current corn and soybean prices, which are hovering around $4 and $10 per bushel, respectively.

“Current projections suggest a second consecutive year of low to negative returns for many farms [in 2024],” the ag economists concluded in the final revision. “Further cost adjustments and strategies should be considered and implemented, particularly if current commodity price levels persist, as planning for the 2025 crop year approaches.”

Their conclusion jives with reports circulating from farm managers and ag retailers. Farmers are nervous about projections for net profit in 2025. In fact, some are seriously looking at how to minimize losses to weather 2025.

Tight budgets impact weed control

Purdue weed control specialist Bill Johnson has one emphatic message: “Don’t try to survive next year by cutting back on your weed control budget.” If too many growers choose to skimp on weed control, either by eliminating residual products or trimming rates, Johnson fears it could be a very good year for weeds — especially the most troublesome weeds, like waterhemp and Palmer amaranth.

“It’s a huge concern as a weed scientist that growers will consider leaving out a residual herbicide in 2025 to reduce costs,” Johnson says. “The other thing that some have likely done already is trim rates to spend less on chemical.

“Weed problems seem to be on the rise this year, and cutting back on rates or leaving out products will only make the situation worse if that’s the route growers take in 2025.”

Johnson believes rented land may be most at risk, especially if a grower doesn’t believe he or she will farm the field after next year and doesn’t focus on weed control. By the same token, if they want to farm certain land going forward, they might forfeit the opportunity if they cut corners and weeds get out of control. Landowners might look for a new tenant.

“You may spend $80 to $100 per acre if you are battling a weed like waterhemp to get good control,” Johnson says. “The alternative is likely poor weed control.”

So, what would Johnson do? While he is not an agronomist per se, he shares these thoughts. “If you must cut something, consider phosphorus or potassium fertilizer, especially if soil test levels are in good shape,” Johnson says. “You can’t skimp on nitrogen for corn, and if pH levels are low, you need lime. One thing is certain — weed control is not the place to cut costs.”