Wet conditions are likely to continue into the fall, according to Laura Edwards, South Dakota State University Extension climatologist.

As of July 18, the Climate Prediction Center’s climate outlook for August through October favors wetter-than-average conditions across South Dakota, she says. Similar conditions are expected in North Dakota.

The Northern Plains states are more likely to have wetter-than-average conditions than anywhere else in the lower 48 states.

“Wet climate conditions in the next three months would be consistent with our state’s long-term trend, which has been an increase in fall precipitation over the last several decades,” Edwards says. “For many soybean and corn growers, wet conditions in the late summer and fall have become more of the norm than the exception in recent years, including in 2018.”

The temperature outlook is less certain. As of July 18, there was indication of a pattern change toward cooler-than-average temperatures in August. However, September and October do not appear to lean strongly toward either cooler or warmer than average.

TEMP OUTLOOK: Temperature outlook for August through October 2019. Brown and tan areas have increased chances of warmer-than-average conditions in the three-month period. White areas have equal chances of warmer or cooler conditions.

Overall for the three-month period through October, there are equal chances of warmer, cooler or near-average temperatures for South Dakota.

Agricultural Impacts

Usually, wetter and cooler August climate conditions favor good soybean production during this key reproductive stage, Edwards says.

Moisture would benefit the corn crop in its reproductive stage as well, as much of the state’s crop is far behind average development for this time of year.

Pasture and range appear to be producing well.

Fall moisture is often a benefit to trees and forestry preparing for winter and the next growing season. Yards and gardens will continue to do well if cool and moist conditions continue to minimize heat and drought stress, and if diseases and other pests are kept at bay.

PRECIP OUTLOOK: Precipitation outlook for August through October 2019. Green colored areas on the map have increased chances of wetter-than-average conditions.

“Cool conditions however, could slow down corn growth again as accumulated growing degree days may level off,” Edwards says. “Wet conditions will not benefit small grain harvest either in the month ahead. Too much fall moisture could set the stage for more spring flooding in 2020, as our soils are already saturated, or at least very wet, already.”

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