Corn bulls continue to struggle as U.S. weather is abnormally cooperative for late-July into early-August. We are deep into the "Dog Days" of summer and I'm sitting here in Kansas City with 80-degree temps, good soil moisture profiles and a bit of rain forecast almost every day for the next week.
For a bit of trivia, the official “Dog Days” of summer are said to begin on July 3 and end on August 11. This time frame came about as Sirius, the Dog Star, was observed to be the brightest star in the sky. The ancient Greeks noticed that in the summer months, Sirius rose and set with the Sun, and they theorized that it was the bright, glowing Dog Star that was adding extra heat to the Earth during this July to August time period. Bottom-line, weather is abnormally cooperative and crops in many locations have been benefiting. Take a look at the 6-10 day forecast I included below. It's tough to get overly bullish the corn market with such a good forecast.
As a spec, I'm staying long but understanding that more pressure could be applied to the downside. I originally got into this position thinking "time" would ultimately be the play. I still think "time" or lack thereof could still create a strong tailwind. I feel like we are still only one hiccup away from a major problem i.e. one early wide-spread frost, one wide-spread flood at harvest, etc... The crop seems somewhat fragile, roots shallow, and some health issues brewing. I'm not giving up on higher prices! I want to stick around through late-Fall to see how these cards play out.
Again, this is exactly why I elected to sellout of all old-crop bushels. I didn’t want to be forced to sell on bad timing. There's nothing worsen the marketing game then being right the market but wrong the timing. If you've made that mistake, don't beat yourself up too bad, I've done it many times in my life, and I know it’s never any fun. From my perspective, "time" is perhaps more important than "price" when it comes to farm marketing. This is one of the hardest concepts or lessons for many of us to get our hands around. As we've all heard our parents and grandparents say so often, "timing is everything." Hang in there...
Source: Van Trump Report
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