The decline in agricultural production in the EU would range from 7% (global adoption) to 12% (EU-only). Impacts on production would be smaller worldwide, except in the case of global adoption, when production would decline by 11%.

The decline in agricultural production would tighten the EU food supply, resulting in price increases that impact consumer budgets. Prices and per capita food costs would increase the most for the EU, across each of the three scenarios. However, price and food cost increases would be significant for most regions if strategies are adopted globally. For the United States, price and food costs would remain relatively unchanged except in the case of global adoption.

Production declines in the EU and elsewhere would lead to reduced trade, although some regions would benefit depending on changes in import demand. However, if trade is restricted as a result of the imposition of the proposed measures, the negative impacts are concentrated in regions with the world’s most food-insecure populations.

The declines in production and trade, coupled with the projected increases in food commodity prices, would significantly reduce the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP), especially if adoption was limited to the EU. In that case, the EU’s decline in GDP would represent 765 of the decline in the worldwide GDP. If the Strategies were adopted beyond the EU, however, the EU’s share in decline of worldwide GDP would drop to 49% in the middle scenario and as low as 12% if globally adopted. The effects on the GDP of the United States would be smaller than for the EU and worldwide under all adoption scenarios.

Food insecurity, measured as the number of people who lack access to a diet of at least 2,100 calories a day, increases significantly in the 76 low- and middle-income countries covered in our analysis due to increases in food commodity prices and declines in income, particularly in Africa. By 2030, the number of food-insecure people in the case of EU-only adoption would increase by an additional 22 million more than projected without the EC’s proposed Strategies. The number would climb to 103 million under the middle scenario and 185 million under global adoption.