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USDA projects: Larger bean crops for South America

In its June 11 estimates of world supply and demand, USDA projects higher soybean production for South America due to increased area.

The Brazil crop is projected at 61 million tons, up 2 million from 2006-07. The Argentina crop is projected at 47 million tons, up 500,000 tons from 2006-07. If realized, production in both countries will be record highs.

USDA is projecting U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2007-08 at 320 million bushels, down almost 50 percent from 2006-07. Global soybean production is projected to decrease 10 million tons to 225 million tons.

Despite the very fast catch-up of U.S. corn planting during the second week of May, progress through the first week of May was the second slowest in the past 10 years, according to USDA. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2007-08 are projected at 997 million bushels, up 50 million bushels from last month's projection.

Forecast U.S. corn exports for 2006-07 were lowered 50 million bushels reflecting the slowing pace of shipments in recent weeks and more expected competition from larger supplies in Argentina.

World 2007-08 corn production was raised 1.5 million tons mostly due to higher expected production in EU-27 and Ukraine.

Carryin stocks for cotton were raised as a result of a lower export forecast for 2006-07. New crop ending stocks are now projected at 6.7 million bales. World ending stocks were raised about 500,000 bales from last month's estimate.

Beginning stocks of U.S. rice were raised 4.5 million hundredweight to nearly 42 million hundredweight, down about 1 million hundredweight from last year. Imports were raised 500,000 hundredweight to a record 21.5 million hundredweight, up 500,000 hundredweight from 2006-07.

Total rice use in 2007-08 was raised 3 million hundredweight, due entirely to increased exports. Exports are projected at 96 million hundredweight, with long-grain exports raised 2 million hundredweight and combined medium-and short-grain exports up 1 million hundredweight.

Global ending stocks are projected at 71.8 million tons, down 3.7 million tons from last year.

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2007-08 are projected 26 million bushels lower. Forecast winter wheat production was lowered 6 million bushels. Carryin is forecast 5 million bushels higher this month as a 5-million-bushel increase in 2006-07 imports raised old-crop ending stocks. Exports for 2007-08 are projected 25 million bushels higher reflecting stronger expected demand for U.S. wheat as production shortfalls in key exporting countries lower world supplies.

Global 2007-08 wheat production is lowered 6.7 million tons from last month.

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