According to a USDA survey, U.S. corn production is forecast at 13.3 billion bushels, up slightly from last month and 26 percent above 2006. Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, yields are expected to average 154.7 bushels per acre, down 1.1 bushels from September but 5.6 bushels above last year.
If realized, this would be the second highest yield on record, behind the 160.4 bushel yield in 2004.
Production would be the largest on record as growers expect to harvest the most corn acres for grain since 1933.
Forecast yields are higher than last year across the Great Plains, central Corn Belt and Delta where adequate rainfall during much of the season provided favorable growing conditions.
Expected yields across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic States are down from last year, as drought conditions during much of the growing season reduced soil moisture levels and stressed the crop.
Soybean production is forecast at 2.60 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from the September forecast and down 19 percent from last year's record high.
Based on Oct. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.4 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month but down 1.3 bushels from last year. Compared with last month, yields are forecast lower in Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and most of the Atlantic Coast states.
Hot, dry conditions continued to cause most of the decline, especially in Delaware, Illinois, Kentucky, Virginia, and the Carolinas, all down at least 2 bushels from last month.
Yields increased from the Sept. 1 forecast in Iowa, Ohio, New York, the Dakotas, and most of the Gulf Coast states.
All cotton production is forecast at 18.2 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from last month, but down 16 percent from last year's 21.6 million bales.
Yield is expected to average 826 pounds per harvested acre, up 15 pounds from last month and up 12 pounds from 2006. If realized, the yield will be the third largest on record.
Harvested area of all cotton is expected to total 10.5 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 17 percent from last year.
Upland cotton production is forecast at 17.4 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from last month but down 17 percent from last year. Growers in the Southeast are expecting lower production than last month.
However, in the Delta and Southwest regions, producers are expecting higher production than last month with record yields forecast in Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas.
American-Pima production is forecast at a record high 775,500 bales, down 2 percent from last month but up 1 percent from last year.
American-Pima harvested area is expected to total 289,000 acres, unchanged from last month but down 11 percent from 2006.
Peanut production is forecast at 3.42 billion pounds, down 1 percent from last year's crop but up 3 percent from last month. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.19 million acres, unchanged from September but down 2 percent from last year.
Yields are expected to average 2,873 pounds per acre, up 70 pounds from last month and up 10 pounds from 2006. Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina) is expected to total 2.44 billion pounds, up 3 percent from September but down 3 percent from last year's level.
Expected acreage for harvest, at 866,000, is unchanged from September but down 7 percent from 2006. Yields in the region are expected to average 2,819 pounds per acre, 75 pounds above last month and 109 pounds above 2006.
As of Sept. 30, peanut harvest was 12 percent complete in Alabama, 25 percent complete in Florida, and 5 percent complete in Georgia. Alabama and Georgia lagged their 5-year averages by at least 17 percentage points, while Florida lagged its 5-year average by 10 points.
Peanut harvest in South Carolina, at 21 percent complete, was closer to normal, but still lagged its 5-year average by 4 points. Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 263 million pounds, up slightly from September but down 19 percent from 2006.
Expected acreage for harvest, at 113,000, is unchanged from September but up 12 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2,326 pounds per acre, up 7 pounds from last month but down 874 pounds from 2006.
As of Sept. 30, peanut harvest was 12 percent complete in North Carolina, which was equal to the average, and 20 percent complete in Virginia, 9 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average.
The Oct. 1, 2007 forecast of pecan utilized production is 320 million pounds (in-shell basis), up 55 percent from last year's crop and 14 percent above 2005.
Improved varieties are expected to produce 260 million pounds or 81 percent of the total, while native and seedling varieties, at 59.2 million pounds, make up the remaining 19 percent.
The 2007 crop is expected to be larger than last year's in most producing states mainly because it is a high year in the alternate bearing pattern typical of pecans.
Production is lower than last year in Arkansas, Kansas, and Missouri due to a severe Easter freeze, and in Louisiana, which is in a down-cycle production season.
U.S. all tobacco production is forecast at 710 million pounds, down 1 percent from the September forecast and 2 percent below 2006.
Area for harvest is forecast at 355,070 acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but 5 percent above last year.
Yields for 2007 are expected to average 2,000 pounds per acre, 23 pounds lower than the September forecast and 144 pounds below a year ago.
Average yields are expected to decrease from the September forecast in all tobacco states except Missouri, North Carolina, and South Carolina where average yields remained unchanged.
Flue-cured production is expected to total 456 million pounds, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast, but 2 percent above 2006. Area for harvest is forecast at 225,000 acres in 2007, unchanged from the September forecast but 6 percent above a year ago.
Yields are forecast to average 2,024 pounds per acre, 9 pounds below the last forecast and down 71 pounds from a year ago. Yields in all flue-cured states were unchanged from the Septe. 1 forecast except Georgia where average yields decreased 100 pounds.
Temperatures in Georgia continued to be slightly above normal and rainfall below average in September.