News of a smaller U.S. almond crop for the 2022 harvest season comes amidst supply chain pressures and a high likelihood that the unsold volume of nuts carried forward into the next marketing season will be significant.

The first of two USDA estimates on the size of the U.S. almond crop, known as the Subjective Report, is a phone interview estimate of crop size. It's unscientific, but the first figure the industry uses before the objective measurement report comes out during the summer.

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Industry representatives suggest the 2022 crop will be about 2.8 billion pounds, with yields averaging just over 2,000 pounds per acre.

While the lower estimate was not unexpected because of frost and freeze damage that decimated some orchards, and significantly hurt others, the crop this year will also be challenged by water availability and the likelihood that Nonpareil nut sizing could once-again be limited.

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Further looming on an industry facing unprofitable nut prices will be how much of last season's harvest can be sold before harvesting this year. According to David Magana, senior analyst with RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness, last season's 2.85-billion-pound crop came on top of 608 million pounds of unsold crop from the previous season.

This year's carry-out could add an additional 930 million pounds at a time when storage space at U.S. almond facilities is already at a premium and there are no signs that export shipments will improve soon.

The April 2022 Almond Board Position Report suggests that handlers have sales commitments representing 97% of last season's U.S. crop. Uncommitted inventory awaiting sale totals more than 771 million pounds, or about one-fourth of last year's crop size.