Early almond crop predictions are starting to come in for 2021 with positives definitely outweighing negatives.

Mitchell Moreda of Meridian Growers in Madera reported a record almond shipment in March with export shipments up 52%. “With 266.7 million pounds shipped that month, it’s the second largest month of shipments ever recorded,” falling short of the largest shipment month in October 2020 which showed 309.7 million pounds.

“We expect to see more optimism in the market moving forward and with shipping restrictions easing, we believe there is nothing stopping the remaining months of the season from outperforming,” he said. “If new crop estimates are under 2.8 billion pounds, things will be bullish. If above 2.9 billion pounds, it will be a bearish market.”

Eric Bailey, CEO of the 10-year-old Cyclone Shipping Company, a fruit and nut shipper based in Manhattan Beach, says: “Fiscal 2020/2021 brought out the largest almond crop on record in California with the graphs going up for the third year in a row and 2021 is expected to also be a very good year with predictions that another record will be broken.

“Each summer, USDA predicts the following season’s crop size based on samples from orchards across the state where kernels are measured and weighed,” he says. “Their estimate is pretty close to the mark and early indications are that it’s going gangbusters.”

Blue Diamond officials are also looking forward to this year’s efforts. President and CEO Mark Jansen, in his April Insights column, noted: “Although supply chain issues remain a global challenge, particularly at the Port of Oakland where agriculture products are stacked at the port, we continue marketing through the record 2020 crop now estimated to top 3.1 billion pounds. With 2021 bloom now complete, all eyes remain on the weather following March storms that included winds, heavy rain, and even some hail. Grower-owners might welcome springtime calm in the next growing phase as trees soak up the nutrients needed to grow the 2021 crop.”

Weather difficulties

Blue Diamond Vice President Mel Machado’s early April report also recognized early weather difficulties — a “mixed bag of weather with periods of bright, clear skies interrupted by blustery winds, rain, and hail over many areas of the Central Valley,” he noted. “Temperatures reflected the variable weather with chilly morning lows sparking concern as they approached the freezing point. Fortunately, the temperatures never made it to damaging levels.

"What did prove problematic was a thunderstorm that produced locally-heavy rain and impressive amounts of hail in Butte, Stanislaus, Merced, Kern, and Fresno counties — fortunately with little reported apparent damage due to nut development early stages.”

Growers are now keeping an eye out for fungal disease indications as nutlets go through the process of segregating into varying sizes, a process heavily influenced by the tree’s nutritional state and weather conditions over the next several weeks.

 “Owing to the variations in bloom, growers are reporting wide variability in the potential crop,” according to Machado.  “Many orchards that produced exceptional 2020 crops presented a light bloom this year with a consequently lower crop potential for 2021.  San Joaquin Valley growers, particularly in the southern SJV, are reporting the best potential crop volumes, while some Sacramento Valley growers admit individual orchards have crop potential so low they are questioning the value of even harvesting a crop this year.”

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