As the July 8 objective almond estimate nears, a sense of cautious optimism is peeking from the California almond industry. This as the May position report of almond shipments and inventory reveals improved exports to some markets.

Blue Diamond Almonds writes in a newsletter update that the May report “exceeded expectations for the third month in a row and posted the best shipment number of the crop season thus far.”

Those numbers suggest the carryout from this crop year to the next could be lower than the feared 900-million-pounds once thought by industry leaders and bankers.

If there’s a silver lining in the sub-$2 almond prices now in their third consecutive year, it’s that buyers still want California almonds. The issue remains the ports and maritime shippers.

Shipments up

The Blue Diamond newsletter reports that shipments to India were up significantly year-over-year. U.S. exports to India more than doubled from last year’s figures, up from 14.1 million pounds to almost 34 million pounds.

European shipments were also a bright spot, up 31% to 74.6 million pounds on the month. This despite year-to-date shipments trailing by 13%.

While year-to-date shipments are down anywhere from 4% to domestic markets, to 27% off in China and Vietnam, they’re all flat or up when compared to crop year 2019.

Shipping commitments currently stand at 614 million pounds, a 1% increase from last May. Uncommitted inventory sits at 660 million pounds, up 52% from this time last year.

Industry experts say shipping capacity and the willingness of maritime carriers to ship almonds abroad will be critical to managing the carryout.