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Bold sales paid off in 2016, turning record yields into profits. Will they work again?

3 Min Read
Valorie and Jason Rogers operate a corn and soybean farm, along with a trucking business, near Ottumwa, Iowa. Jason has been successful in marketing his crops using hedging and other strategies he sets up before, during and after harvest. Ryan Donnell

For the general public, commodities and gambling are one in the same. But farmers aren’t playing the markets when they use futures, options or cash contracts to lock in a price. They’re hedging, taking price risk off the table from their revenue equations.

It’s the opposite of gambling, and growers who went all in on summer and fall rallies this year parleyed record yields into profits, surviving forecasts that looked like a disaster just a few months ago.

To be sure, the 2016 crop marketing year still has nine months to run, which could provide more, and maybe even better, pricing opportunities. But growers who seized the day on earlier rallies can sleep a whole lot better in the meantime.

Hedging was the elixir for uncertain times after nearby soybeans closed at their lowest level since 2009 on March 1. When the market unexpectedly jumped, Jason Rogers was ready to take the cure.

“I don’t always make the most money, but I do make money,” says Rogers, who farms near Ottumwa, Iowa. “I want to be in business next year.”

Rogers had company. Farm Futures surveyed growers after the rally this summer, and found 30% had priced enough of their crops to turn a profit. Opportunities in corn were more fleeting, but the average producer still got some 32% of the crop protected, along with 44% in soybeans. And that was before an “October surprise” provided additional pricing opportunities, thanks to record yields.

The most profitable growers in our survey protected even more of their production than the average producer. And like the hedgers, they were more confident about the future of their businesses, too, worrying less about paying back debt or borrowing operating funds for their next crop.

All in all, 2016 was the year of the hedge. Here’s a run-down on what worked, and prospects for keeping the black ink flowing in 2017.

They were ready

Remember the saying, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me”?

After failing to sell rallies in 2014 and 2015, more growers learned a lesson, adapting to the new rules of supply-driven markets. Doing nothing succeeded when strong demand fueled the big bull market from 2008 to 2012. But hedging is an imperative since those golden times faded.

For some, mistakes started to pile up. Growers we surveyed in January were still clinging to large amounts of 2015 inventory. They whittled down those supplies by March, selling below cost of production as prices fell for the rest of the winter.

That meant they were ready to start hedging 2016 crops when the spring rally started — maybe too ready. Growers had modest price targets headed into the rally, especially for soybeans. Some pulled the trigger too early and too often. Those who moved too aggressively on corn were more likely than average to be headed for lower income in 2016, according to our survey.

Growers with a sense of history, however, know pricing windows like those in 2016 tend to come. There’s no guarantee, of course, but around 80% of the years over the past four decades saw spring and summer corn and soybean prices take out their winter highs.

“I was watching for it,” says Missouri farmer Tom Weigand, who locked in about 30% of his corn and soybean crops during the June rally.

When soybeans moved past $10 a bushel this fall, he sold some more.

“With the yields we had this year and with my cost of production, my beans were profitable enough to cover all of my costs with a little left over,” he says.

In part two we’ll share two more reasons why some farmers were able to bold hedging strategies into big-time profits.

About the Author(s)

Bryce Knorr 1

Senior Market Analyst, Farm Futures

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