If you live in Australia and listen to Australian weather forecasters who look at long-range forecasts, you'll have a completely different outlook on the next few months than someone who lives in the U.S. and listens to U.S. long-range forecasters.
Ken Scheeringa, associate state climatologist in Indiana, says it all relates to who believes an El Nino event is forming, and who doesn't believe it.
The El Nino cycle, which includes El Nino, the warm phase, La Nina, the cool phase, and a neutral phase, has been stuck in the neutral phase for a long time. Rumors of an El Nino event beginning have persisted for months.
Whether or not it develops is important because these events are triggered by temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which in turn affect atmospheric pressures and air circulation patterns around the globe, then having a big impact on storm tracks over extended periods. The result can determine which areas of the world get rain and which stay drier than normal.
Scheeringa says that The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reports a further decrease in confidence that an El Nino is in fact developing in the tropical Pacific. That body puts the odds down to 50%, citing that the waters in the region where waters must warm to begin an El Nino event have begun to cool off, and the atmosphere refuses to respond to warmer waters which at one point were developing.
However, the American equivalent of the Australian agency, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, doesn't see it that way. The Center and its staff are more confident that an El Nino event will still develop sometime in the next few months. They put the chance of an El Nino developing at about 70% during this summer. They believe that if an El Nino doesn't start this summer, the odds actually increase to 80% for an El Nino to begin during autumn and winter.
There are the opinions- choose what you believe.