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New Long Term Agricultural Projections to be Released

New Long Term Agricultural Projections to be Released

USDA will unveil ag projections for the next 10 years on Feb. 13.

The USDA will release new 10-year agricultural projections Feb. 13 at 12:00 noon EST. The USDA Agricultural Projections to 2021 report will be released on the Office of the Chief Economist web site at www.usda.gov/oce. USDA publishes the projections each year in February.

The long-term projections are developed by interagency committees in USDA, with the Economic Research Service having the lead role in the preparation of the report. The new projections cover crop and livestock commodities, agricultural trade and aggregate indicators, such as farm income and food prices through 2021. The projections do not represent a USDA forecast, but a conditional, long-run scenario based on specific assumptions about farm policy, weather, the economy and international developments. Provisions of the 2008 Farm Act and subsequent legislation are incorporated into the projections and are assumed to remain in effect through 2021. Normal weather also is assumed throughout the projection period.

Key results in the projections include:

  • Recent price increases for many farm commodities underlie record projected levels of U.S. agricultural exports and U.S. net farm income in 2011.
  • Prices for major crops decrease in the early years of the projections as global production responds to current high prices.
  • World economic growth and demand for biofuels combine to support longer run increases in consumption, trade, and prices for agricultural products.
  • Thus, following the near-term declines, prices for corn, wheat, oilseeds, and many other crops remain historically high.
  • After near-term reductions from projected 2011 records, the value of U.S. agricultural exports and net farm income each rise through the rest of the decade.

The report will be available in printed form on February 23-24 at USDA's 2012 Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Va. (Conference details are found at: www.usda.gov/oce/forum). Copies also can be ordered from the National Technical Information Service at www.ntis.gov or 1-800-999-6779. Request document OCE-2012-1.

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