The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center says there is still a better-than-even chance that Indiana temperatures will continue warmer than normal through November. The same trend has held across most of the state since much earlier in the year.
Long-term forecasters don’t tend to break trends unless there is some concrete evidence on long-term maps that a change is coming. So far, the climate prediction experts have elected to stay with the same tune: a warmer-than-normal trend.
Ken Scheeringa, associate Indiana state climatologist, says NOAA is placing a fairly low percentage on this prediction, however. A warm trend is still expected to cover most of the U.S., except the Southeast. The prediction for the entire Southeast is normal, meaning there is an equal chance of above, below or just normal temperatures during the period. Only extreme northern Kentucky is expected to be in the warmer-than-normal trend, along with Indiana and all points farther north. Most of Kentucky and everything south and east should fall in the normal range for temperature.
It’s that time of year when precipitation could include frozen forms, such as sleet and snow — not just rain. If the warm trend is correct, however, that would lessen the odds of seeing sleet or snow just yet, at least across most of Indiana. All bets are typically off when it comes to the northwest section of the state affected by snowfall coming off of Lake Michigan.
Scheeringa notes there is nothing to indicate that precipitation trends will deviate from normal across Indiana during November. It’s the same forecast that has been lining up with the warmer-than-normal trend during the past several months. Even so, some areas have seen near record rainfall during certain periods this past summer.
NOAA’s CPC predicts drier-than-normal weather across the Southeast, where temperatures could be normal. The only area of the U.S. expected to be above normal on precipitation in November is a very small area in the far western portion of the upper Great Plains.