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What You Can Expect From Weather in September

What You Can Expect From Weather in September
Long-term weather forecasters call for normal; here's what normal means.

The line on long-term forecasts all season long for most of Indiana has been normal temperatures and normal rainfall. It hasn't necessarily turned out that way, with July being the coolest month of record at Indianapolis and many other locations, but that was the forecast.

Long-term weather forecasters call for normal; but what does normal mean?

Ken Scheeringa, associate climatologist in the Office of the state climatologist, says it's important to understand what "normal" means for a long-term forecaster's perspective. It means there are equal chances, a 50-50 chance, of the trend either being warmer or cooler than normal, or wetter or drier than normal. What "normal" really says is the forecaster doesn't have confidence in which way the weather will go. It may go one way or the other as it did in July, but when the forecast was made, there weren't enough clear indications for the forecasters to make a solid prediction that they felt comfortable standing behind.

September is again forecast to be normal, based on this definition. If it is normal over Indiana, here are the average temperatures and rainfall amounts you could expect, depending on where you live in the state.

The numbers are broken down by crop reporting district. There are nine districts in Indiana. Temperatures are in degrees F and rainfall is in inches of rainfall. This data is based on a 30-year average from 1981 through 2010.

Related: Is There an El Nino Event on the Way for Indiana Farmers?

Maximum daily average temperatures expected under normal conditions are: northwest, 76.2; north central, 75.6; northeast, 75.4; west central, 77.8; central, 77.1; east central, 76.4; southwest, 80, south central, 79.1; southeast, 78.5 and statewide, 77.4. Low average temperatures for the same regions, respectively, are 52.4, 53.2, 52.2, 53.3, 53.4, 52.7, 55.8, 54.6, 54.8 and 53.5.

Rainfall expected would be: northwest, 2.49; north central, 2.67; northeast, 2.82; west central, 2.71; central, 2.6; east central, 2.83; southwest, 3.19; south central, 2.84; southeast, 2.64 and statewide, 2.75.

Weather ahead: September should be 'normal' but 'normal' really means forecasters aren't sure which way trends might go.

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