Chris Hurt was more optimistic than USDA during a recent webinar sponsored by Purdue Extension, held after the early July stocks and acreage report from USDA. Speaking just after the market rallies following the report, he felt that USDA was still low in their projected average price for corn. He was guessing as high as $4.50 at the time, about 75 cents per bushel higher than USDA.
"The market was rolling along thinking there were plenty of stocks, and what the report said was that the stocks, while still large, might be tighter than many thought," Hurt says.
It caused traders to change their minds just a bit about how they view the potential crop this season."
Even though he is somewhat optimistic, Hurt also stresses it's not the year to judge crops across the Corn Belt and make marketing decisions based on what you see out your back door, especially if what you see is puny corn and yellowish soybeans. There are plenty of those out there and real damage has been done, but not on a large enough scale to cause major market moves – at least not yet, he implies.
Making marketing decisions just on what you see locally when it's a global market today, and has been for a couple decades or more, doesn't make sense any year, but especially not this year. The same might apply if you have an excellent crop out your back door. Everyone doesn't, depending on where they live.
Based on Crop Progress reports as of early July, Indiana and Missouri had some of the lowest percentages for corn rated good to excellent in weekly reports from Indiana Ag Statistics, based on National Ag Statistics data, Hurt noted. Northwest Ohio also has its share of problems. While lower than in previous weeks, numbers were still relatively strong for good to excellent crops in Illinois and Iowa.