Farmers fearing that a late start to corn planting would bring a host of adverse effects aren't feeling as much pain now that rapid planting progress has alleviated concerns, says Darrel Good, University of Illinois agricultural economist.
However, despite huge gains in corn seeding, there's still lingering sentiment that some ground will be switched over to soybeans. And combined with recent wet weather across much of the Corn Belt, concern is transferring from late corn to late soybean planting.
"As with corn, there is no agreement on what constitutes late planting for soybeans. We have defined late planting as occurring after June 10 in years prior to 1986 and after May 30 since 1986," Good explains.
Those acres typically account for 6 to 9% of total soybean acreage. The percentage of the acreage planted late has ranged from 9% in 2012 to 66% in 1995.
According to Good, there were five years in which late planting exceeded 50%, and all of those years were in the 1990s. Late-planted acreage accounted for 48% of the acreage in 1986 and 47% in 2011.
Acreage and yield outcomes in those years might influence expectations for this year if it turns out that a large percentage of the acreage is planted late, the economist notes.
Yet, he adds, yields are mostly determined by July and August weather conditions. The history of yields in late-planted years suggests that like most other years, the U.S. average yield this year should be within about 1 bushel of the trend value of 44 bushels per acre unless summer weather conditions are extreme.
"History suggests that those concerns, particularly from the yield side, are probably premature. The USDA's June 28 Acreage report will provide a clearer picture of the magnitude of planted acreage," Good said.
News source: U of Illinois