We could say July would be drier than normal in Indiana. We could say it will be wetter than normal. We could say it will be cooler than normal. Or we could say it will be warmer than normal.
All those things would grab better headlines and zoom you in reading on this article. People worry about the extremes, partly because they will affect their crops, and partly because if it's a widespread pattern, it could affect Midwest corps and thus affect markets.
We could say all those things and they would be true. Ken Scheeringa, associate state climatologist in Indiana, says that the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration's forecast for July from the Climate Prediction Center gives equal chance for each of those scenarios. There's also an equal chance it will wind up being a normal month for temperature and rainfall.
What the forecast is saying is that there are no factors that affect weather that are pointing one way or the other, suggesting one trend over another, at least not as of the first of this month. Weather patterns can change, and CPC updates the maps to reflect possible changes.
There are definite trends in other parts of the country, however. The primary trend that could cause the most impact is continued wetter than normal, cooler than normal weather in the Southwest, including most of Texas. Those are the same areas ravaged by excess rain and flooding in May.
There is also a warmer than normal trend setting up over the far western U.S. for the month of July.
Besides those two areas, equal chances of above, below or normal patterns for both rainfall and temperature exist across the U.S., Scheeringa says.
July tends to be one of the wettest months of the year in Indiana, although that may not seem logical. The statewide average for the month is just over 4 inches of rain.