Farm Progress

Historically, American agriculture has been the first to feel the pain of trade disputes.

Hembree Brandon, Editorial director

June 15, 2018

3 Min Read
President Trump jousts with leaders from other nations at the G7 Summit in Canada.Jesco Denzel-Bundesregierung-via-Getty Images

Be careful what you wish for, the old adage goes — you just may get it. When presidential candidate Donald Trump promised to scuttle the pending TransPacific Partnership trade deal, renegotiate NAFTA, build a wall between the U.S. and Mexico, clamp down on immigration, and be Mr. Tough Guy in countering tariff inequities, it struck a chord with America’s farmers.

Agriculture, feeling the pinch of several unprofitable years, and unhappy with government as a whole, overwhelmingly supported him. A year after taking office, President Trump boasted at a GOP congressional retreat: “We have seriously fulfilled promises. I call it ‘promises plus.’”

Hyperbole aside, in fulfilling those promises, or threatening to do so — in the process alienating America’s decades-old trading partners and allies, egging things on with a daily barrage of stick-in-the-eye tweets — U.S. agriculture finds itself on the front lines of a potential global trade war that could jeopardize almost $150 billion annually in exports of farm goods. 

China, America’s biggest trading partner, Mexico, Canada, and the European Union, have all responded to the administration’s imposition of tariffs on steel, aluminum, and other imports with retaliatory tariffs and threats of tariffs on yet  more U.S. products.

Historically, American agriculture has been the first to feel the pain of trade disputes. In the current contretemps, there is irony that the retaliation is purposely directed at agriculture, the sector that helped underdog Trump attain the presidency.“The Chinese aren’t dumb,” one farmer said, when that country first threatened increased tariffs on U.S. ag products. “They know farmers are big supporters of President Trump, and that if they hurt us in the pocketbook …  we’d squeal quicker and louder than anyone.”

Soybeans-closeup-Scott-Olson-Getty_1.gif

One of every three rows of U.S. soybeans is exported.

But as the trade barbs fly thicker and markets roil, farmers wonder — even should everything eventually be resolved amicably — what damage will be done to U.S. agriculture’s reputation as a reliable supplier, and how much business will be lost to competitor countries.  “If we lose trade to China, our neighbors [in South America] will be glad to take up that trade,” John Heisdorffer, an Iowa soybean producer and president of the American Soybean Association, told Time magazine.

Then, at the recent G7 summit in Canada, the president managed to alienate just about everyone in sight with his acidic comments and post-conference insulting tweets.

With many in farmland going through yet another round of belt tightening as the 2018 crop season gets under way, “A lot of us feel this amounts to kicking us while we’re down,” one farmer said. Many are increasingly wondering if a shoot-from-the-hip president, unschooled in the ways of trade and the importance of exports to U.S. agriculture, may do irreparable harm to markets that it took decades and millions of checkoff dollars to build and maintain.

Toss into that caustic mix the costly impact higher tariffs could have on hundreds of thousands of goods purchased daily by the American consumer, and there is potential for much unhappiness across the land.
 

About the Author(s)

Hembree Brandon

Editorial director, Farm Press

Hembree Brandon, editorial director, grew up in Mississippi and worked in public relations and edited weekly newspapers before joining Farm Press in 1973. He has served in various editorial positions with the Farm Press publications, in addition to writing about political, legislative, environmental, and regulatory issues.

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