South Dakota farmers attended the 2018 South Dakota Soybean Success Seminars, which were held in four eastern South Dakota locations from January 29 to February 1. This annual series of educational events is managed by the South Dakota Soybean Association and sponsored by the South Dakota Soybean Research and Promotion Council.

Al Kluis, broker and trader with Kluis Commodities, keynoted the events held in Mitchell and Sioux Falls, S.D., while Agricultural Meteorologist Dr. S. Elwynn Taylor spoke in Aberdeen and Watertown, S.D.

Kluis has been a commodity advisor and broker since 1976. His advice column, “Your Profit,” appears in every issue of Successful Farming magazine. He has also published two books on commodities trading.

Taylor is the extension climatologist at Iowa State University and is well known for his analysis of weather influence on the Midwest. He has published more than 200 articles highlighting his research on the impacts of weather conditions.

Kluis gives advice

Despite drought and low commodity prices, Kluis had an upbeat message for South Dakota farmers. 

“Like last year, farmers should expect a seasonal rally,” Kluis said. “I would advise them to be aggressive with selling cash grain on that rally and to put some new crop hedges and puts in place.”

“Here’s what’s different about 2018 versus 2017,” Kluis said. “The crude oil market is about $30 per barrel higher. Global stock markets are about 30 percent higher. And the U.S. dollar is down by about 14 percent.”

The combination of these factors means the outlook for grain market demand is very good, according to Kluis.

Timing is everything

He explained that another issue for South Dakota farmers is the history of wide basis patterns between August and October.

“If you’ve got cash grain to sell, you want to get that grain moved sometime between April and early July,” Kluis said. “Waiting to sell until the end of August or September has really been a financial mistake for the last couple of years, and I think it will be in 2018.”

He also spoke to timing with respect to corn in particular.

“If you have storage at all, store corn,” said Kluis. “The return to corn storage from the October lows to the March 2019 time period is about 40 cents a bushel. A lot of South Dakota farmers are getting close to 200 bushels an acre. That’s 80 dollars an acre more revenue by using those bins from October through March.”

Weather’s impact on markets

South Dakota farmers will continue to be affected by drought, according to Kluis. “If you look at the U.S. Drought Monitor, you can see how the map has changed over the last six months,” he said.

South Dakota is part of several large areas in the U.S. and Canada that have remained very dry, he explained.

“In 2018, we’re coming in with an empty tank of water. We need to have timely rains this next year to get a trend line yield,” he said.

“If we have any weather problems at all, with this need for a 4.4 billion-bushel soybean crop, we could have some pretty exciting markets yet in 2018.”

Additional seminar information

This year more than 350 farmers attended the Soybean Success Seminars.  These educational events focus on markets as well as management practices to help farmers increase soybean yields and quality.

Growers attending the seminars received the South Dakota Soybean 2017 Yield and Quality Contest Results booklet. Having analyzed seven years of Yield Contest data, South Dakota Soybean agronomists presented best management practices and trends, as well.

Another educational opportunity for South Dakota farmers

The annual Soy 100: Growing 100-Bushel Beans event is scheduled for Wednesday, March 14 at South Dakota State University in Brookings, S.D.

Keynote speakers for Soy 100 will be Andrew Weiting and Mike Sonne of Swenson Investments & Commodities. They’ll discuss current grain fundamentals, historical seasonalities and weather outlooks to help growers make smart grain marketing decisions.

Additional speakers will address the economy, agronomics, soybean seed quality, planting populations, seed treatments and soil health.

Farmers can register for the free event at www.sdsoybean.org/programs-events/events/soy100-growing-100-bushel-soybeans/.

2018 Soybean Success Seminars: Al Kluis' Key Takeaways from sdsoybean on Vimeo.