The tide in the international soybean market is shifting. New crop supplies out of South America – the first wave of a huge crop – are starting their seasonal ascension, taking away business from the U.S.
This happens every year, but the timing can differ depending on the pace of harvest in Brazil and Argentina. And China, the world’s largest importer, is also showing signs of trying to diversify its purchases, adding sellers from Russia, Ukraine and Canada.
Purchases from the U.S. accounted for 88% of Chinese imports last month, according to customs data released overnight. That’s a little lower than December, While better than a year ago, it pales to the 97% share the U.S. commanded in January 2015.
Old crop export sales continued the dip last week. Old crop bookings fell to 15.2 million bushels, the lowest since after New Years. China again dominated the list of buyers in the USDA tally, but most of the purchases were switched from deals previously announced as going to “unknown destinations.” China also cancelled another cargo, as crush margins plummet into the red amid rising inventories at ports, sending Chinese soybean futures sharply lower this week.
Still, both shipments and total commitments are running ahead of the pace normally seen for the first half of the marketing year, on their way to what looks like a record for the 2016 crop. Bookings of 2017 beans are very sluggish, though that was also the case a year ago.
Corn sales of 39.7 million bushels included 10.4 million bushels of new crop, with the old crop deals in line with the rate forecast by USDA for the 2016 crop. Nonetheless, the total fell below trade guesses, with overall shipments a little slow after soybeans dominated the pipeline.
Japan was by far the leading corn buyer last week, accounting for more than 28 million bushels. Mexico, the biggest importer of U.S. corn last year, was notably cooler on the heels of a looming trade dispute with the U.S., booking only a cargo of new crop.
Wheat sales beat expectations with 26 million bushels of old and new crop business, but 2016 crop sales remain below the rate forecast by USDA for the 2016 crop with a quarter left in the marketing year. Algeria was a noted buyer of old crop, after drought slashed production. Sales of hard red winter wheat continue to show improvement, boosted by very low prices.
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