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3.09 soybeans-july1.jpg

My thoughts on reducing more new crop soybean risk

Now is the time to consider reducing your new-crop price risk when it comes to soybeans.

Soybean producers are seriously considering the opportunity to reduce more new-crop price risk. I personally reduced a bit more long-term exposure up near $10.20 per bushel vs. the NOV17 contract and now have about 40% of my estimated 2017 price production risk removed at profitable levels.

Demand seemed a bit mixed yesterday as the NOPA number was strong but not record large, actually below what most had been anticipating, at 160.752 million bushels down considerably from 164.641 million in October and down vs. the average analyst estimate of 162.568 million.

On the flip side weekly export sales were once again north of +2.0 MMTs and well above most all insider estimates. China was again in the U.S. market looking for additional supply. Technically the new-crop NOV17 contract seems to be looking at fairly stiff resistance up between $10.40 and $10.50 per bushel.

To the downside it feels like nearby support is somewhere between $9.75 and $10.00 per bushel. A close below $9.75 would obviously se the stage for a much deeper setback. The old-crop MAR17 contract is looking at resistance up between $10.60 and $10.80 per bushel.

As a producer, I cognate to like the thought of reducing more long-term price risk while being offered profitable returns. As a spec I remain on the sideline.   


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