Land sales are now consistently indicating a drop in land values. Ron Stock, co-owner and CEO at Stock Realty & Auction Co., reports land is selling up to 10% to 18% lower than it was a year ago, depending on how that land was managed and the commodity it produces. "We've known that land prices are down, but now the sales are coming in to back up the trend. We have more consistent data to actually show the trend now," Stock says.
SELLER'S MARKET: If someone is considering selling land, it's better to sell now than later, says Ron Stock. "It's better to sell today than tomorrow."
Marginal land has taken the biggest hit, while pasture acres and gently rolling, productive pivot-irrigated land are seeing the least decline in value, Stock adds. "If it's a farm with Class I soil and good equipment, it hasn't backed up as much as the farm with Class II or III soils that's more divided up, or oddly shaped," he says. "The ideal, more productive farms in eastern Nebraska probably haven't backed up 5%, but the more marginal farms have backed up as much as 18%."
As of late September, it's also taking longer to sell land — roughly 90 to 120 days to market a piece of farmland, and sellers are a little hesitant to sell their land with these declining values.
"There are people calling asking how much their land has gone done. It's starting to be widely accepted that land isn't worth as much as it was a year ago," Stock says. "Landowners are mostly calling to find out how much it has gone down. It seems people aren't very willing to sell for less than what the high is. I think it's going to take time for the shock from the wave being over to set in. Once that shock settles out, there are going to be sellers willing to sell and buyers willing to buy."
If a landowner is considering selling a farm or ranch, Stock says the sooner to market, the better. "It's better to sell today than tomorrow," he says. "There are going to be more farms on the market this fall than we've seen in a number of years. We are in transition from a buyer's market, which it has been for the last seven years, to a seller's market."
Of course, this continued decline in land values is largely due to low commodity prices, although there is a bright spot in this year's corn and soybean yields. "Preliminary indications in eastern Nebraska show yields are going to be phenomenally high this year," says Stock. "The lowest soybeans yields we're seeing are 60 bushels, and corn yields are all greater than 200. This corn crop is going to be fantastic."
Ron Stock contributed to this report. He is a licensed real estate broker and has been in business with his brother, Mark, since 1984. He is licensed in Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota and Missouri.
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