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Corn+Soybean Digest

Sept. 10 WASDE Report Summary

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA came out on Sept. 10. It projects season average corn prices up from last month, and soybean prices have increased 65¢ on both ends of the range. For the complete report, go to the USDA WASDE page online.

Projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2010-2011 are lower this month with lower carry-in and reduced production for corn and sorghum. Beginning stocks for corn are projected 40 million bushels lower, with higher 2009-2010 corn use for ethanol and a small increase in exports. Corn production for 2010-2011 is forecast at 13,160 million bushels, down 205 million, but still the largest crop on record. The national average yield is forecast at 162.5 bu./acre, down 2.5 bu. The largest reductions in forecast yields are for the eastern Corn Belt, which account for more than half of the reduction in total output.

Domestic corn use for 2010-2011 is lowered 100 million bushels with lower expected feed and residual use as higher prices trim feeding demand and the smaller crop reduces residual disappearance. Projected exports are raised 50 million bushels with rising world demand for coarse grains, particularly corn. U.S. corn ending stocks are expected to decline to 1.1 billion bushels, down 196 million bushels. At this level, 2010-2011 carryout would be the lowest since 2003-2004. Stocks as a percentage of total use would be the lowest since 1995-1996. The season-average farm price is projected at $4-4.80/bu., compared with $3.50-4.10 last month.

U.S. oilseed production for 2010-2011 is projected at 104.8 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month. Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.483 billion bushels, up 50 million from last month based on an increase in the projected yield to a record 44.7 bu./acre.

Soybean exports for 2010-2011 are increased 50 million bushels to 1.485 billion reflecting strong early season sales and a projected increase in global import demand, especially for China. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, down 10 million from last month as higher export demand more than offsets the increased supply.

Soybean exports for 2009-2010 are projected at a record 1.495 billion bushels, up 25 million from last month reflecting strong shipments in the final weeks of the marketing year. The increase is partly offset with a lower residual, leaving ending stocks projected at 150 million bushels, down 10 million. Other changes for 2009-2010 include reduced use of soybean oil for biodiesel and increased soybean oil exports. Season-ending soybean oil stocks are projected record high at 3.21 billion pounds.

Prices for soybeans and products are all increased this month, supported by strong prices for corn and wheat. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2010-2011 is projected at $9.15-10.65/bu., up 65¢ on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $270-310/short ton, up $20 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 37.5-41.5¢/lb., up 1¢ on both ends of the range.

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