Long-grain rice – second largest in current 11 years at 2.449 million acres (Chart 18).

Soybeans – largest on record at 83.037 million acres (Chart 22).

Cotton – fourth lowest in the current 10 years at 10.023 million acres (Chart 23).

Corn – third largest on record at 86.55 million acres (Chart 24).

On the one hand, fundamentals and charts suggest, near-term, likely more price weakness than strength for rice, cotton and grain markets.

On the other hand, markets are screaming price uncertainty due to a lack of global economic, political and social stability, monetary intervention, weather disruptions and military positioning.

History teaches in times of high levels of global and regional uncertainty, countries tend to have greater focus on their individual country’s food, economic, energy, and homeland security — very true today. This presents a huge challenge for analysts in interpreting price impacts.

Today’s global economies have an array of potential uncertain anomaly events, as well as known potential risk events. Evaluating the last seven months of market price action, market participants are learning to anticipate unexpected price movements for rice, cotton, soybeans, wheat and feed grains.

Price movement near-term seems more bearish than bullish, but today’s potentially inflationary stimulus-driven global economic environment and other potential known and unknown events like weather disruption, coupled with accommodative Central Banks and events like BREXIT (United Kingdom voters voted to exit from the European Union), tend to act as a price floor and can act as an unexpected catalyst for stronger prices.

2016 Arkansas long-grain rice harvested acreage is estimated at 1.425 million acres, 36 percent above 2015 harvested acres.

2016 California long-grain rice harvested acreage is estimated at 9,000 acres, 29 percent above 2015 harvested acres.

2016 Louisiana long-grain rice harvested acreage is estimated at 436,000 acres, 24 percent above 2015 harvested acres.

2016 Mississippi long-grain rice harvested acreage is estimated at 199,000 acres, 34 percent above 2015 harvested acres.

2016 Missouri long-grain rice harvested acreage is estimated at 207,000 acres, 24 percent above 2015 harvested acres.

2016 Texas long-grain rice harvested acreage is estimated at 173,000 acres, 40 percent above 2015 harvested acres.

2016 United States long-grain rice harvested acreage is estimated at 2.449 million acres, 33 percent above 2015 harvested acres.

Cotton planting was delayed in Texas due to heavy rains and severe weather. Many fields needed to be replanted due to hail damage or flooding; however, most producers were able to get the cotton crop planted within the normal planting window.

In North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia, cotton planted area is down from 2015.

Farmers responding to the survey indicated that 99 percent of the intended corn acreage had been planted at the time of the interview, slightly higher than the 10-year average.

Planted acreage for 2016 is unchanged or up compared with the previous year across most of the Corn Belt.

Ninety-two percent of this year’s corn crop was planted with biotechnology seed varieties, unchanged from last year. Biotechnology seed includes traits for insect resistance (Bt), herbicide resistance, or stacked gene, which contains traits for both herbicide and insect resistance.

Long-grain rice acreage: U.S. long-grain rice acreage is very problematic without new demand and/or an event that reduces global supply or an event that heightens global food security.

Soybeans, cotton, and feed grains: Near-term (two-plus weeks) I can make a better argument for a stronger dollar than a weaker dollar. This coupled with fundamentals and technical indicators for cotton, soybeans and feed grains implies these commodities may in the near-term be in search of a price bottom.

Anomaly and risk events:

U.S. treasuries are very likely to remain sideways given its near-term bullish move (lower yields).

Near-term (next two-plus weeks) the dollar should be sideways to up, but the dollar is likely to remain range bound.

U.S. equities should be watched carefully; after BREXIT they had a major sell-off followed by a rebound.

Rice, soybeans, cotton, corn, and wheat have had interesting price movements since December.

Uncertain anomaly events and elevated levels of risk events are now with us for a number of years into the future. These events will likely exert strong influences on market participants with the potential to create major swings and directional changes in individual or multiple markets. Expect increasingly complex price patterns.