The U.S. cotton crop just keeps getting bigger. In USDA’s July 9 Crop Production Report and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, the agency raised its estimate of U.S. cotton production to 18.3 million bales, a 10 percent increase over June’s estimates, due to higher planted area and projections for good yields, especially in Texas. Acreage estimates were based on USDA’s June 30 Acreage Report.
A lower projected abandonment rate for cotton and higher expected average yield reflect favorable July crop conditions in the Southwest, USDA reported.
Domestic mill use was raised marginally for cotton on stronger recent activity. Exports were raised sharply due to the projected larger available supply and strong foreign demand. While ending stocks of 3.5 million bales are 700,000 bales above last month, the stocks-to-use ratio of 20 percent remains relatively tight. The projected range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is unchanged at 60 to 74 cents per pound.
Meanwhile, the world cotton stocks-to-use ratio is the smallest since 1994-95.
U.S. rice production is projected at a record 250 million hundredweight, a 2.5 percent over last month, and 14 percent above 2009-10. Estimated harvested area at 3.49 million acres is 3 percent above last month, 13 percent above 2009-10, and the largest since 1999-2000.
Long-grain harvested area was raised 7.5 percent to a record 2.75 million acres, while combined medium- and short-grain harvested area was lowered 10.5 percent to 740,000 acres. Average rice yield for 2010-11 is projected at 7,157 pounds per acre, 45 pounds per acre below last month, but 72 pounds above 2009-10.
Long-grain rice production is projected at a record 190 million hundredweight, 7 percent above last month, and combined medium- and short-grain rice production is projected at 60 million hundredweight, 10 percent below last month. Rice beginning stocks for 2010-11 were raised 10 million hundredweight or 35 percent to 38.4 million, 26 percent above the previous year. Total rice use for 2010-11 is projected at a record 242 million hundredweight, down about 2 percent from last month.
Exports for 2010-11 are projected at 113 million hundredweight, up 4 percent from a month ago, and an increase of 8 percent from 2009-10. Exports of combined medium- and short-grain rice were raised 10 percent to 34 million hundredweight, while exports of long-grain rice are up 1 percent to 79 million. Projected rough rice exports and combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough-equivalent basis) were each raised 2 million hundredweight to 47 million—a record—and to 66.0 million, respectively.
A record global rice crop will pressure international prices, USDA says, particularly for long-grain rice. Conversely, tighter global exportable supplies of medium-grain rice will help support prices of that class.
U.S. corn production was lowered 125 million bushels, to 13.24 billion bushels this month, leaving supplies down 250 million bushels. Exports for 2010-11 are projected 50 million bushels lower as tighter domestic supplies, strong demand from ethanol production, and rising prices reduce the export competitiveness of U.S. corn.
Ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected down 200 million bushels at 1.373 billion bushels, 105 million below the 2009-10 projection. Ending stocks for old crop U.S. corn are projected 125 million bushels lower reflecting higher use in 2009-10.
Total U.S. wheat production is forecast 149 million bushels higher than last month, to 2.216 billion bushels on higher forecast area and a forecast record yield of 45.9 bushels per acre. Winter wheat production is up 23 million bushels from the previous month.