Morning Market Review for September 21, 2021

scyther5/Thinkstock Markets-122316-scyther5-ThinkstockPhotos-2000
Corn, wheat fall on dollar rally. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)

Soy inches up on export terminal repair progress in the U.S. Gulf

  • Corn down 2-4 cents
  • Soybeans up 1-3 cents; Soymeal down $0.30/ton; Soyoil up $0.39/lb
  • Wheat down 2-4 cents

*Prices as of 6:45 am CDT.

Good morning! Have you started combining on your farm yet? Tell us all about it! Click here to take our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey on 2021 crop conditions to share your harvest progress (or hunting plans!). Our Google Map, updated daily, provides all past responses for farm readers, from farmers.

Corn

Corn futures slid $0.03-$0.04/bushel overnight as harvest pressures and a rising dollar weighed price prospects for the new crop lower. A late season improvement to corn condition ratings and rapid harvest speeds also triggered lower prices, as the ratings increase could point to higher yields and larger new crop supplies.

Yesterdays’ big news in the corn market stemmed largely from another cyberware attack. New Cooperative Inc. in Iowa announced its systems had been breached by ransomware late last week, in an attack controlled by Russian hacker group BlackMatter.

BlackMatter stole the large grain co-op’s fiscal data, human resources information, research and development documentation, and “SoilMap,” a technology tool for the co-op’s growers. New Cooperative has over 50 locations centered in the Hawkeye state and is a top buyer for its customers in the region.

The attack comes right at the beginning of harvest season in Iowa, which is the country’s largest producer of corn. According to a Bloomberg report, BlackMatter does not believe that New Cooperative is a part of the “critical infrastructure” in the U.S., despite being specifically designated by President Biden as part of the essential food and agriculture sector that should be “off-limits to ransomware groups.”

However, growers in Western Iowa are likely to disagree with the group’s perception of what constitutes critical infrastructure as many producers scramble to find new sources for freshly harvested grain or lose out on lucrative basis opportunities in the coming days.

USDA’s latest Crop Progress report released yesterday saw harvest rates begin to take off for the 2021 season as virtually all corn crops across the country had reached – and in many cases surpassed – the denting phase. As of September 19, 57% of the U.S. corn crop was reported as mature, up 20% from the previous week and 10% ahead of the five-year average.

Harvest progress inched up from last week, rising 6% to be 10% complete as of Sunday. That reading inched 1% ahead of the five-year average despite slower harvest rates in Southern states where both early and late season rains continued to stall the final stages of crop development.

Corn crops in the Heartland are still drying down and maturing, though early planted and drought-stressed fields appear to be first in line to greet the combines. The “I” states and I-80 corridor have largely just started up harvest activities over the past week, though most areas are already ahead of the five-year average.

Expect those paces to continue as long as rains can be kept at bay over the next week.

Corn condition readings rose 1% on the week to 59% good to excellent.

Soybeans

Recovering export rates as reported in yesterday’s Grains Inspection for Export report from USDA helped prop up slight gains in the soy complex overnight. Exporting facilities in the Gulf continue to slowly repair damage incurred from high winds during Hurricane Ida before peak soybean export season commences in October.

Soy futures at the Chicago Board of Trade inched $0.01-$0.04/bushel higher despite pressure from a stronger dollar.

Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw 58% of U.S. soybean plants dropping leaves – the telling sign of crop maturation for soybeans. Similar to corn maturation rates, the latest figure was 20% higher than a week ago thanks to dry weather and 10% higher than the five-year average for the same reporting period.

This was the first week USDA reported on soybean harvest rates for the 2021 season. As of September 19, 6% of anticipated 2021 U.S. soybean acres had been harvested, in line with the five-year average.

Southern states – where the crop is typically first harvested and shipped directly into export channels – were largely behind the five-year average pace for the week as planting delays and recent hurricane deluges continued to put the crop behind typical harvest paces for this time of year.

But states in the Upper Midwest are likely to offset those delays in the coming weeks. Though it is still early in the harvest season, the dry weather in the Heartland this summer helped speed up maturation rates and provided rains hold off over the next couple weeks, expect harvest rates in the Midwest to quickly outpace those in other areas of the country.

Condition ratings for soybeans as of last Sunday rose 1% from the previous week, with 58% of the crop now reported to be in good to excellent condition.

Wheat

Prices in the wheat complex fell $0.01-$0.04/bushel overnight as a rallying dollar limited the attractiveness of U.S. wheat on the global stage.

Winter wheat planting rates picked up more momentum this week, rising 9% from the previous week to 21% complete as of September 19. That figure was 3% higher than the five-year average, due in large part to dry weather that favored sowing activities across the country.

The Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest continue to lead the charge in planting rates for winter wheat to be harvested in 2022. Dry weather and other crop harvesting activities in the Plains could place some constraints on sowing rates this week.

But thankfully the soil moisture conditions are not so depleted that seeds are lying in the ground, unable to take root. USDA reported winter wheat emergence rates for the first time this season in yesterday’s report. As of Sunday, 3% of anticipated 2022 winter wheat acres were already reporting emergence – about 1% higher than the five-year average thanks to the early planting paces.

More rains across the Plains and Pacific Northwest will go a long ways to ensure a healthy 2022 winter wheat crop. But as corn and soybean harvest ramps up across the Heartland, planting rates could stall in the coming weeks as farmers focus on other important tasks.

Also worth a read: Water Street Solutions CEO Darren Frye offers guidance on how to improve margins during harvest, diving specifically into operating efficiencies in the latest Finance First column. Advance Trading, Inc.’s Brian Basting counsels growers on making decisions amid market uncertainty using hedges in the most recent Ag Marketing IQ column.

Weather

Yesterday’s rain systems will continue to push through the Eastern Corn Belt today, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. Temperatures across the Heartland are likely to dip into the 60s and 70s today – the last day of summer 2021.

The showers will move slowly out of the Eastern Corn Belt, lingering until Thursday in the region and dashing any hopes of early harvest progress for Ohio and Indiana. NOAA expects that Indiana and Ohio could see over two inches of rain over the next 24 hours.

Financials

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. rose to 42,291,709 cases as of this morning according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The death toll increased to 676,261 deaths as of press time as the pandemic continues to deal devastating blows to individuals unvaccinated against the virus.

According to the CDC, nearly 77% of U.S. adults have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine as workplace mandates help boost immunity rates. Over 181 million Americans (55%) are fully vaccinated. Over 5.9 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide.

U.S. stock markets were poised to bounce back from yesterday’s selloff on a round of bargain buying in the overnight trading session. China’s Evergrande Group – the country’s most indebted real estate company – continues to hold back more gains in the market as speculation continues to abound about whether it can meet its $6 billion interest payment due on Thursday.

The Federal Reserve will issue fresh guidance on interest rates tomorrow and comments about its economic forecasts on Friday. Energy futures continued lower on concerns about global growth, led in large part by China. S&P 500 futures  rose 0.76% to $4,381.25 at last glance.

Morning Ag Commodity Prices - 9/21/2021
Contract Units High Low Last Net Change % Change
DEC '21 CORN $ / BSH  5.2275 5.165 5.175 -0.0425 -0.81%
MAR '22 CORN $ / BSH  5.3075 5.2475 5.255 -0.0425 -0.80%
MAY '22 CORN $ / BSH  5.355 5.295 5.2975 -0.0475 -0.89%
JUL '22 CORN $ / BSH  5.3425 5.285 5.29 -0.045 -0.84%
SEP '22 CORN $ / BSH  5.0575 5.0175 5.02 -0.035 -0.69%
DEC '22 CORN $ / BSH  5.0275 4.985 4.985 -0.0325 -0.65%
MAR '23 CORN $ / BSH  5.0925 5.09 5.09 0.0025 0.05%
NOV '21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.665 12.6025 12.63 0.005 0.04%
JAN '22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.7575 12.695 12.72 0.0025 0.02%
MAR '22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.8 12.74 12.775 0.0125 0.10%
MAY '22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.865 12.81 12.865 0.04 0.31%
JUL '22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.9 12.85 12.8825 0.0225 0.17%
AUG '22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.8175 #N/A 12.78 0 0.00%
SEP '22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.5525 12.5525 12.5525 0.0275 0.22%
NOV '22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.4375 12.385 12.4175 0.0175 0.14%
JAN '23 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.425 #N/A 12.3975 0 0.00%
OCT '21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 55.54 54.83 55.21 0.3 0.55%
DEC '21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 55.5 54.79 55.16 0.29 0.53%
OCT '21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 336.4 335.3 335.6 -0.5 -0.15%
DEC '21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 340.3 339 339.4 -0.4 -0.12%
JAN '22 SOY MEAL $ / TON 342.9 341.7 342 -0.4 -0.12%
MAR '22 SOY MEAL $ / TON 345.6 344.8 344.9 -0.4 -0.12%
MAY '22 SOY MEAL $ / TON 349.5 348.6 348.9 0 0.00%
DEC '21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.01 6.9525 6.9775 -0.03 -0.43%
MAR '22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.1175 7.06 7.0775 -0.0375 -0.53%
MAY '22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.145 7.095 7.1125 -0.0375 -0.52%
JUL '22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.99 6.9425 6.9575 -0.04 -0.57%
SEP '22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.01 6.9725 6.9825 -0.04 -0.57%
DEC '21 Kansas City HRW $ / BSH  7.0175 6.9525 6.98 -0.02 -0.29%
MAR '22 Kansas City HRW $ / BSH  7.1 7.045 7.0725 -0.0175 -0.25%
MAY '22 Kansas City HRW $ / BSH  7.1525 7.1 7.12 -0.0225 -0.32%
JUL '22 Kansas City HRW $ / BSH  7.07 7.025 7.045 -0.0225 -0.32%
SEP '22 Kansas City HRW $ / BSH  7.08 7.06 7.06 -0.0475 -0.67%
DEC '21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.94 8.9 8.9375 -0.0025 -0.03%
MAR '22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.825 8.81 8.825 0.005 0.06%
MAY '22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.715 8.71 8.715 0.01 0.11%
JUL '22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.57 8.54 8.57 0.01 0.12%
SEP '22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  7.83 7.83 7.83 -0.005 -0.06%
DEC '21 ICE Dollar Index $ 93.265 93.11 93.115 -0.141 -0.15%
 OC '21 Light Crude $ / BBL  71.63 70.59 71.08 0.79 1.12%
 NO '21 Light Crude $ / BBL  71.48 70.36 70.94 0.8 1.14%
OCT '21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 2.1951 2.1687 2.1832 0.0242 1.12%
NOV '21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 2.1922 2.1647 2.1799 0.0238 1.10%
OCT '21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 2.1415 2.1184 2.1275 0.0123 0.58%
NOV '21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 2.0897 2.0647 2.0751 0.0148 0.72%
SEP '21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 155 0 0.00%
OCT '21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 156.675 0 0.00%
 OC '21 Live Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 122.775 0 0.00%
 DE '21 Live Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 128.075 0 0.00%
OCT '21 Live Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 84.975 0 0.00%
DEC '21 Live Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 74.225 0 0.00%
SEP '21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 16.62 16.61 16.62 0.01 0.06%
OCT '21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 17.14 17.1 17.1 0 0.00%
NOV '21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 17 16.93 16.93 0.07 0.42%

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