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Morning Market Review for September 17, 2021

scyther5/Thinkstock Markets-122316-scyther5-ThinkstockPhotos-2000
Corn, soy edge lower on export concerns. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)

Plus – a recap of my latest travels/crop tours through the Heartland

  • Corn down 1-2 cents
  • Soybeans down 4-8 cents; Soymeal down $0.70/ton; Soyoil down $0.25/lb
  • Chicago & Kansas City wheat up 1-2 cents; Minneapolis wheat mixed

*Prices as of 6:50 am CDT.

Good Morning! I’m back at home in Colorado after spending three (very wonderful) weeks in the Midwest. Thank you to everyone who came out to Husker Harvest Days this week and stopped by to listen to our market outlook and ask questions. It was great to see you all!

The best part of the past few weeks was seeing so many different types of climates, farms, and production strategies as I traveled across the Heartland. There are a lot of varying ways to be successful in this industry, and I am grateful to all of you that I can be a part in helping you achieve that.

I completed my travels along I-80 yesterday. On my way to Grand Island earlier this week, I saw combines tearing through bean fields west of Lincoln. I didn’t see a whole lot of other combining activities on I-80 between Illinois and Nebraska this week, though crops are likely to mature quick enough after yesterday’s heat and wind to get combines started by early next week.

But Eastern Colorado was another story. A couple combines were plowing through fields close to the Colorado – Nebraska state line (on I-76). I spotted a farmer drilling in winter wheat by Sterling, CO and noted that several winter wheat fields are already showing signs of crop emergence on plants to be harvested in 2022.

As I inched closer to the Front Range, corn chopping was in full swing at the dairy farms east of the I-25 corridor. And y’all know my soft spot for those dairies. I saw chopping crews in every corn field for a solid five miles as the massive dairies in the area gather their next years’ worth of feed supplies in the coming days.

The scale of activity dwarfed that of my family farm’s silage harvest last week. While we used one chopper and three to four chopper trucks, each field had multiple choppers and an equivalent amount of chopper semis to transport the silage back to its respective dairy. Those mountains you see on the drive in on Highway 14 aren’t the Rockies – they’re silage piles!!

Talking with growers across the Plains at Husker Harvest Days, it sounds like a lot of corn silage has been chopped in the region over the past few weeks, with a lot of early activity thanks to dry weather this summer. Most growers in the region are now waiting for corn to dry down a little more before the combines start running.

Looking at beef prices and judging them by the dozen or so empty cattle trailers I met headed west yesterday (they were headed back east to the feedlots from the JBS plant in Greeley, CO), I’d say that processing continues to clip along at a rapid pace to make up for the fire at the JBS facility in Grand Island, NE earlier this week.

Have you started combining – or chopping – on your farm yet? Click here to take our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey on 2021 crop conditions to share your harvest progress (or hunting plans!). Our Google Map, updated daily, provides all past responses for farm readers. Check out our latest Feedback from the Field analysis to see the most recent farmer comments from around the country.

Corn

Rising freight costs in the Gulf and harvest pressure weighed on Chicago corn futures this morning. The complex traded at a $0.01-$0.02/bushel loss overnight as the biofuel and export complexes offered little support by way of demand.

However, barring any bearish news today, the corn complex has steadily backed away from the ledge of falling below $5/bushel this week offering farmers some lucrative selling opportunities ahead of peak harvest activity.

Soybeans

Soybean prices fell $0.05-$0.08/bushel overnight on lingering export concerns. While steady Chinese purchases over the past month likely capped losses, uncertainty about U.S. Gulf loading capacity was high on traders’ minds in the overnight session.

Wheat

Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures edged $0.01-$0.02/bushel overnight as the dollar inched slightly lower. The wheat complex was supported in large part by crop losses in France and Canada reported earlier this week, as well as lower forecasted 2022 winter wheat acres to be planted in top exporter Russia following abnormally dry fall sowing conditions.

Minneapolis spring wheat futures continue to slide on forecasts of a bumper spring wheat crop planned in Australia. The complex wavered within a penny of gains and losses this morning as the market digests the prospect of Australia harvesting its second-largest spring wheat crop on record.

Australia will likely harvest just shy of 1.2 billion bushels of wheat after peak harvest activity begins in October. If realized, Australia could become one of the four largest wheat exporters in the world this year, especially as top exporters in the Northern Hemisphere constrict supplies after massive crop shortfalls this summer.

In fact, at the current projections, Australia is likely to trail only Russia as the world’s second largest wheat exporter in 2021/22.

But despite better weather prospects, Australian growers continue to face a similar struggle to those growers in the Northern Plains – horrific wait times on equipment and labor shortages. If logistical and operational back logs continue in the Land Down Under, Australia could fall short of meeting this goal.

Weather

Moderate temperatures are in store for the Upper Midwest today, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. But higher mercury readings are expected in the Eastern Corn Belt. For the weekend, the Plains will heat up while temperatures in the Eastern Corn Belt trend slightly more moderate.

A band of showers will stretch across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Central Plains today. Mostly clear skies are forecast through the weekend in the Heartland while the Southern Delta continues to combat the residual effects of Tropical Storm Nicholas.

Wind gusts up to 35mph will sweep along the Plains again today.

Financials

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. rose to 41,788,118 cases as of this morning according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The death toll increased to 670,027 deaths as of press time as the pandemic continues to deal devastating blows to individuals unvaccinated against the virus.

According to the CDC, over 76% of U.S. adults have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine as workplace mandates help boost immunity rates. Over 180 million Americans (54%) are fully vaccinated. Over 5.8 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide.

Concerns about China’s questionable growth prospects and looming institutional credit crises contributed to losses in the U.S. stock market overnight. Markets remain concerned about rising cases of the delta variant.

Comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) overnight also layered on more uncertainty for markets. An ECB official told Bloomberg that inflationary woes could last longer than anticipated as supply chain backlogs continue to plague the economy and if the pandemic continues to upend traditional consumer purchasing patterns.

All told, the S&P 500 index shed 0.25% overnight to $4,453.25 on the overarching sentiments.

Morning Ag Commodity Prices - 9/17/2021
Contract Units High Low Last Net Change % Change
DEC '21 CORN $ / BSH  5.305 5.26 5.28 -0.015 -0.28%
MAR '22 CORN $ / BSH  5.3775 5.335 5.355 -0.0125 -0.23%
MAY '22 CORN $ / BSH  5.415 5.38 5.4 -0.01 -0.18%
JUL '22 CORN $ / BSH  5.4075 5.37 5.3875 -0.01 -0.19%
SEP '22 CORN $ / BSH  5.1 5.085 5.095 0.0025 0.05%
DEC '22 CORN $ / BSH  5.0475 5.0225 5.025 -0.015 -0.30%
MAR '23 CORN $ / BSH  5.1175 5.1025 5.115 0.0025 0.05%
NOV '21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.985 12.855 12.915 -0.045 -0.35%
JAN '22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.07 12.94 13.0025 -0.045 -0.34%
MAR '22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.105 12.9725 13.0225 -0.065 -0.50%
MAY '22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.12 13.0175 13.07 -0.06 -0.46%
JUL '22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.14 13.03 13.075 -0.07 -0.53%
AUG '22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.97 12.97 12.97 -0.075 -0.57%
SEP '22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.6975 12.6975 12.6975 -0.0775 -0.61%
NOV '22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.625 12.5225 12.5675 -0.0575 -0.46%
JAN '23 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.545 12.545 12.545 -0.0725 -0.57%
OCT '21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 57.03 56.24 56.56 -0.27 -0.48%
DEC '21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 57.05 56.2 56.5 -0.34 -0.60%
OCT '21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 340.4 337.8 339.8 -0.4 -0.12%
DEC '21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 344.1 341.6 343.6 -0.5 -0.15%
JAN '22 SOY MEAL $ / TON 346.5 344 345.2 -1.2 -0.35%
MAR '22 SOY MEAL $ / TON 348.8 346.7 347.4 -1.7 -0.49%
MAY '22 SOY MEAL $ / TON 352 349.9 351.6 -0.7 -0.20%
DEC '21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.16 7.11 7.1475 0.0175 0.25%
MAR '22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.265 7.2175 7.255 0.015 0.21%
MAY '22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.295 7.2475 7.285 0.01 0.14%
JUL '22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.0725 7.03 7.0575 -0.01 -0.14%
SEP '22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.0875 7.0525 7.0525 -0.0375 -0.53%
DEC '21 Kansas City HRW $ / BSH  7.23 7.1875 7.2075 0.0025 0.03%
MAR '22 Kansas City HRW $ / BSH  7.315 7.275 7.2925 0 0.00%
MAY '22 Kansas City HRW $ / BSH  7.355 7.325 7.33 -0.0075 -0.10%
JUL '22 Kansas City HRW $ / BSH  7.23 7.195 7.2075 -0.0125 -0.17%
SEP '22 Kansas City HRW $ / BSH  7.23 7.225 7.2275 -0.0275 -0.38%
DEC '21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  9.08 9.0525 9.0575 -0.0075 -0.08%
MAR '22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.965 8.94 8.945 0.005 0.06%
MAY '22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.8375 8.83 8.83 0.0075 0.09%
JUL '22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.6925 #N/A 8.68 0 0.00%
SEP '22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  7.9275 7.92 7.9275 0.01 0.13%
DEC '21 ICE Dollar Index $ 92.92 92.745 92.8 -0.119 -0.13%
 OC '21 Light Crude $ / BBL  72.72 71.86 72.18 -0.43 -0.59%
 NO '21 Light Crude $ / BBL  72.5 71.65 71.97 -0.4 -0.55%
OCT '21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 2.2131 2.1955 2.2079 -0.0031 -0.14%
NOV '21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 2.2104 2.189 2.2056 -0.0034 -0.15%
OCT '21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 2.1844 2.1566 2.1716 -0.0096 -0.44%
NOV '21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 2.1278 2.1024 2.1177 -0.0092 -0.43%
SEP '21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 155.875 0 0.00%
OCT '21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 157.1 0 0.00%
 OC '21 Live Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 123.6 0 0.00%
 DE '21 Live Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 128.575 0 0.00%
OCT '21 Live Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 85.475 0 0.00%
DEC '21 Live Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 74.45 0 0.00%
SEP '21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 16.61 16.6 16.6 -0.01 -0.06%
OCT '21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 17.15 17.15 17.15 0 0.00%
NOV '21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 17.02 17.02 17.02 0.04 0.24%

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