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Market wrap: soy planting up, exports down


Bearish news: Planting weather is ideal for soybeans. Seventy-four percent of soybeans are planted. Nearly 45 percent of the U.S. soybean crop is now emerged. Acres of soybeans are high and maybe increased.

Weekly soybean export sales were down 38 percent at 295,000 tons. Shipments were 44 percent below average. Trader open interest in soybeans is 5,600 buy contracts. That number represents a decrease of near 10,000 contracts. Export inspections 5.7 million bales are above last week but below the amount needed to meet USDA projections.

Palm oil exports are down 15 percent due to the falling European economy and higher Indonesian export taxes. Soybeans dropped after Memorial Day, 6 cents in the United States and 33 cents in China. The surge in dollar value added fuel to the price burn down. Soybean crush of 136 million bushels was below market expectations. Brazilian exports hit a record 5.7 million tons for May.

Bullish news: The House of Representatives passed a dollar a gallon tax credit on biodiesel fuels. This could lower consumer cost in stores if freight costs decrease.

Argentine Farmers are storing soybeans to protect against inflation and China is buying U.S. beans. U.S. farmers are also holding beans in storage hoping for higher prices.


Bullish news: China issued additional corn import quotas this week. Export sales exceed market expectations at 1.177 million tons. Shipments were above expectations also at 1.25 million tons. Buy side open interest increased 8,400 contracts. Chinese corn production is down 1 percent. Additional imports from the United States may be needed.

Bearish news: Planting is nearly complete in record time. Ukraine corn planting is 96 percent complete. Russia’s corn planting delayed by cold weather is underway again. Asian corn acres are expected to increase significantly. Corn prices dropped after Chinese weather turned favorable. Commercial trader’s open interest is on the sell side that is net short.

U.S. corn is near 100 percent planted with 76 percent rated good to excellent. Favorable production weather is limiting the upside price potential


Bearish news: Wheat growing conditions and planting progress are good to excellent in North America, Australia and Asia. Higher dollar values and heavy world supply pressure prices. Lower euro values make European wheat less expensive. Large supplies in Russia are price depressing. Argentina exported 3 million tons this week.

Wheat crop condition ratings 85 percent good to excellent, the highest ever recorded is 88 percent. Export inspections were disappointing at 12 million bushels.

Traders remain on the sell side and open interest is on that short side of the market. Old crop wheat sales are 29 percent behind USDA projections. Weekly export sales of 485,000 tons met market expectations. U.S. wheat is not competitively priced on world markets. Europe sold 484,000 tons to export.

Bullish news: Wheat planting areas in Europe and India are dry. Technical charts turned positive indicating the price bounce last week. These indicators are short term usually within a week.


Bearish news: Rice is near 100 percent planted. Early rice is going to flood. Production potential is a heavy weight on prices. Rice production potential has increased worldwide.

Increased dollar values make U.S. rice expensive compared to Asian rice for Asian, European and African nations. Exports decline when dollar values rise. The trend is negative.

Bullish news: Rice export sales were above average at 68,100 tons. Surprisingly, Brazil bought almost 20 percent of the total. U.S. rice was competitively priced with Asian rice when freight cost was factored into prices.

Rice markets are now oversold. Any reversal to the upside finds support from oversold conditions.


Bullish news: Cotton pricing is expected to remain in a narrow range. Demand is steady with weekly export sales meeting market anticipation at 346,000 bales. Chinese demand is notably steady. New home sales are up 15 percent and durable goods sales are up 3 percent. Asian economies are booming.

Cotton prices held steady as world stock prices took a tumble. Weather is Texas has turned dry but not critically. Weather is the Southeast remains favorable.

Traders have over 47,000 buy contracts of open interest is cotton. That is the third largest total in history for any agricultural commodity.

Bearish news: Domestic cotton demand remains questionable. Jobless claims remain high. U. S. economic growth is slow and Europe is going backwards. Western nation taxes are at an all time high. Export sales this week barely met market expectations.

Planting at 79 percent complete is average but 63 percent of the crop rates good to excellent which is way above average and bearish for prices. Cotton prices have fallen below the 100 day moving average.

TAGS: Outlook
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