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Cotton crop reduced, demand continues to weaken

Cotton crop reduced, demand continues to weaken
USDA is projecting smaller crops for cotton, rice and soybeans and bigger production for corn. Cotton's reduction in estimated production is accompanied by an expected decline in exports, due to weakening demand. World cotton stocks are recovering from the tight situation of the last two years, but the stocks to use ratio is still the lowest in 15 years.

USDA has lowered estimated U.S. cotton production by 1 million bales from last month due to record abandonment anticipated in Texas and knocked an equal amount off its export forecast because of weakening demand.

The July 12 Crop Production report and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates also raised forecast corn production, while lowering estimates for rice and soybeans.


U.S. cotton production was reduced 1 million bales from last month, to 16 million bales, due primarily to historic drought conditions in Texas, where as much as 30 percent of the crop is expected to be abandoned.

Beginning stocks were raised 500,000 bales due to continued export sales cancellations and the slow pace of shipments in the final months of 2010-11.

Projected exports were lowered 1 million bales to 12 million, due both to reduced U.S. supplies and weaker foreign demand. Ending stocks were raised to 3 million bales, but the forecast stocks-to-use ratio of 19 percent is still relatively tight. The average price received by producers is now projected at 90 cents to $1.10 per pound.

World cotton consumption was lowered nearly 2 percent from last month, as surplus yarn stocks and substitution of polyester for cotton in textile products are expected to reduce demand below previous expectations.

Imports were reduced for several countries as a result of weaker demand growth, with China accounting for more than half of the reduction. Exports were reduced for the United States, Brazil, and Australia, but were raised for India.

World ending stocks were increased nearly 6 percent to 51 million bales. The projected stocks-to-use ratio of 44 percent reflects recovery from the very tight levels of the two preceding years, but is still the third lowest since 1994-95, according to USDA.


Corn production for 2011-12 is projected at 13.47 billion bushels, 270 million bushels higher than last month based on estimated area. Feed and residual use for 2011-12 was raised 50 million bushels, and corn use for ethanol was raised 100 million bushels with larger supplies and an improved outlook for ethanol producer margins.

Estimated corn exports were raised 100 million bushels mostly reflecting increased demand from China. Ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected 175 million bushels higher at 870 million. Ending stocks for 2010-11 were raised 150 million bushels to 880 million.


Rice production for 2011-12 was lowered 6 percent to 187 million hundredweight due entirely to a reduction in acreage. Harvested area for 2011-12 was lowered 185,000 acres to 2.65 million. Area in 2011-12 is the lowest since 1987-88, and the crop size would be the lowest since 1997-98.

Total use for 2011-12 was lowered 5 million hundredweight to 227 million due to lower exports of long grain rice. Ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected at 29.6 million hundredweight, down 12.5 million, or 30 percent from a month ago, and 21 million, or 42 percent below 2010-11.

Global rice production is projected at a record 456.3 million tons. Global exports in 2011-12 were lowered slightly due mostly to an expected decline in U.S. exports. Global consumption in 2011-12 was lowered 1.7 million tons. World ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected at 96.3 million tons, up 1.4 million from last month, and nearly the same as the previous year.


U.S. soybean production is projected at 3.225 billion bushels, down 60 million due to reduced harvested area. Harvested area, estimated at 74.3 million acres, is 1.4 million below the June projection. Soybean yield is projected at 43.4 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month.

Exports for 2011-12 were reduced 25 million bushels to 1.495 billion reflecting lower U.S. supplies, increased supplies in South America this fall, and reduced global imports. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 175 million bushels, down 15 million.

Global soybean production is projected at 261.5 million tons, down 1.3 million mostly due to lower production in the United States.


U.S. wheat production for 2011-12 is forecast at 2.106 billion bushels, up 48 million from last month as higher winter wheat production and higher forecast yields for durum and other spring wheat more than offset lower estimated area.

World wheat production for 2011-12 is projected down 1.9 million tons with reductions in Canada, Ukraine, and Mexico, more than offsetting increases for the United States, Turkey, and EU-27.

Global wheat exports for 2011-12 are projected 2.4 million tons higher, mostly with higher expected exports from the United States and Russia.

Global 2011-12 wheat consumption was raised 3 million tons. Global ending stocks are projected 2.1 million tons lower with most of the decline expected in the Russia, Canada, and the United States.

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