Soybean bears are pointing to weather headwinds as conditions in South America have improved helping to aid harvest and bump production estimates slightly higher than what many inside the trade had been previously forecasting. Here at home, weather is also weighing on prices, as many traders are thinking overly wet conditions and limited opportunity for field work could ultimately bring about more soybean acres.
Longer-term however, I think there could be a bullish story brewing. Unfortunately, I think it's going to take time to play out. We need to see South America chew thru their new-crop supply, ink a trade deal with the world’s No. 1 buyer of soybeans, stop the bleeding from African Swine Fever in China, and get some weather-related headlines here in the U.S. this growing season. I never said it was going to be easy to build a bullish story, but when we are sitting on record supply up near 1.0 billion bushels, what should we expect?