
Soybeans aren’t the only crop likely to lose acres to corn in 2025. Spring wheat may cede some ground, perhaps enough to drop U.S. plantings to historic lows.
Price ratios between soybeans, wheat and corn moved sharply toward corn in late 2024 and early 2025. Early this year, the ratio of hard red spring wheat to corn dropped under 1.3, its lowest level in over three years.
The economics of corn may pencil out better for many farmers, even in areas considered wheat country. Wheat prices remain depressed amid stiff export competition and concerns the U.S. dollar’s rally to two-year highs may further discourage foreign buyers. In early 2025, spring wheat futures dropped to four-year lows, around $5.77 per bushel.
With spring planting near, corn’s strength may tempt farmers in North Dakota and other top spring wheat states to shift ground. Both corn and spring wheat have similar planting and growing seasons.
A shift toward corn could also halt spring wheat plantings’ modest rebound from a half-century low in 2021. Additionally, a broader shift away from wheat in the U.S. could signal further tightening of global supplies, which USDA already predicts will shrink to a nine-year low in 2025.
Continued shrinkage in U.S. wheat acres would signal smaller supplies for the 2025-26 crop year, setting the market up for a potential rally longer term. But for now, the path of least resistance for wheat, in terms of both acres and prices, appears to be down.
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