There’s likely going to be a shift in the weather for much of the Dakotas, say South Dakota and North Dakota climatologists and Extension climate field specialists.

The latest climate outlook is a story of warmer- and potentially wetter-than-average conditions in South Dakota for July through September, says Laura Edwards, South Dakota State University Extension climate field specialist.

 "For South Dakota, the three months ahead are slightly more likely to be warmer than average," says Edwards. "This projection is due to the atmospheric patterns that are expected, but also due to drier soils in much of the area. These dry soils can increase temperature near the surface faster than wet soils."

Edwards says that during July, precipitation across most of the country, including South Dakota, is projected to have equal chances of being below, near or above average.

A different story unfolds as the seasonal outlook shows wetter-than-average conditions are more likely in the three-month period ahead, when you include August and September.

"This is a change from previous climate outlooks that have been released by NOAA [the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration] in recent months," she says.

"The majority of indicators no longer show El Niño-like temperatures and circulation patterns. We are now in the neutral phase of El Niño, which is neither El Niño nor La Niña," Edwards says. The latest NOAA outlook and others say there’s a 70% or greater likelihood of La Niña conditions to begin sometime in the August to October period.

The same likelihood remains for La Niña to continue through the 2016-17 winter season.

"The latest July through September climate outlooks reflect this transition from El Niño to La Niña during the summer season," Edwards says.

La Niña patterns in August tend to bring wetter conditions to eastern South Dakota. In September and October, the historical patterns are less clear, but lean towards warmer than average in October.

The impacts on agriculture are somewhat difficult to determine this year, she says.

"It is not often that South Dakota has warmer and wetter conditions in combination in the summer season," Edwards says. It is more common to experience warm and dry conditions together.

"Overall, this could be good news for row-crop conditions given the critical pollination period for corn and physiological growth in soybeans, spring wheat, sunflowers and other crops," she says.

Rapid increases in temperature, along with the potential high humidity, should be monitored closely, as should potential heat stress in the cattle and livestock areas as the summer progresses.

Pasture and forage productivity relies more on spring rainfall, but some moderate heat could be tolerated during this summer's grazing season in the eastern part of the state.

Western South Dakota had drier conditions this spring, as moderate drought has crept into the region in recent weeks. There have already been some reports of lower-than-average forage production this year.

"Additional warm temperatures could exacerbate the drought conditions that have already affected the area," Edwards says.

North Dakota
Daryl Ritchison, North Dakota assistant state climatologist, says the weather will likely turn drier in July, August and September in North Dakota. Soil moisture should generally be adequate in most areas for most crops. Soybeans are the exception, because they need a rain in August to put on bushels.

Ritchison expects a wetter fall than the past several years.

“Can we have three near-perfect falls in a row?” he asks. “Not likely.”

SDSU Extension provided the South Dakota information.