Remember this old adage? Marketing involves three emotions: greed, hope, and fear.
Most folks who read this blog know all of these better than you want to admit. Greed for high commodity prices, where complacency sets in and sometimes a producer might opt to not price any portion of their grain since market outlook is quite friendly. Then, when market prices break lower the producer feels they cannot sell and begin to hope prices will rebound higher. Then – sometimes - fear kicks in when markets plummet lower, resulting in panic selling. You’re left with less than stellar sales. Or sometimes you feel fear because you can’t forward contract now because you’re not confident in what your crop will yield.
These thoughts and feelings are quite real and felt by many producers across the country this spring.
Waiting for news
Prices for many grains have rebounded from the recent sell off, and hover around long term support levels, teetering back and forth, waiting for the next piece of market news to dictate price direction.
Can prices return to recent highs, or even extend higher? Or will there be an ample crop, and prices slowly slide lower as summer continues?
Add into the mix two big USDA reports this month: A regular monthly supply/demand report on Thursday, June 10, and the Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report on Wednesday, June 30.
Start creating scenarios for what could happen. Be ready for prices to potentially test the 2012 highs thanks to strong demand and a potentially smaller crop. Yet, also have a plan ready in case the upcoming USDA reports have a negative tone that keeps a lid on any price rally.
Prices are truly at a point where the grain market has the potential to explode higher depending on summer weather. With the Northern Plains experiencing drought, frost/freeze, harsh winds, and blazing temperatures all within a two week time frame, there will be much weather and crop conditions to monitor in the days and weeks ahead.
Yet also, there is tremendous value to protect unpriced bushels should the bullish news come to a halt. Having your marketing strategy balanced, to protect both downside risk and to capture a potentially bullish scenario, is not being wishy washy. It’s called being prepared for whatever Mother Nature and the USDA send your way.