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Summary: Economic, Policy and Market Uncertainties
3 Min Read
Policy issues, including trade, will affect ag markets in coming months and years.
2019 will likely be filled with economic, policy, and market uncertainties. Policy disputes with China will be at the top of the list and most likely the primary driver of evolving economic and market uncertainties.
Sunday evening February 24, 2019 President Donald Trump tweeted.
“I am pleased to report that the U.S. has made substantial progress in our trade talks with China on important structural issues including intellectual property protection, technology transfer, agriculture, services, currency, and many other issues. As a result of these very...productive talks, I will be delaying the U.S. increase in tariffs now scheduled for March 1. Assuming both sides make additional progress, we will be planning a Summit for President Xi and myself, at Mar-a-Lago, to conclude an agreement. A very good weekend for U.S. & China!”
The reality is our policy disputes with China likely will be ongoing for multiple years with gains and setbacks along the way, which is just the realities of a complex, highly competitive, and evolving international relationship.
In 2019, producers, lenders, agribusinesses and others need to be highly respectful of the economic, policy and market challenges — possibly range bound rice, grain and cotton prices.
Rice Outlook
USDA released the 2019 long grain rice, corn, and soybean price projections February 22, 2019, which shows:
Long grain rice: 2016/17 $9.61/cwt.; 2017/18 $11.50/cwt.; 2018/19 $10.70/cwt.; and 2019/20 $10.80/cwt. The 2019/20 marketing year average price of $10.80 per cwt. assumes 300,000 fewer long grain U.S. rice acres than were harvested in 2018.
Corn: 2016/17 $3.36/bu.; 2017/18 $3/36/bu.; 2018/19 $3.60/bu.; and 2019/20 $3.65/bu.
Soybeans: 2016/17 $9.47/bu.; 2017/18 $9.33/bu.; 2018/19 $8.60/bu.; and 2019/20 $8.80/bu.
See accompanying slide show to understand fundamentals behind the price outlook.
The USDA 2019 U.S. long grain rice supply, demand, and price outlook:
2019/20 outlook, reduced production, increased use, and lower ending stocks.
2019 U.S. long grain rice harvested acres is estimated at 1,889,000 acres, 300,000 fewer acres, 13.8-percent below 2018.
2019 U.S. long grain rice yield is estimated at 7,504 pounds per acre or 166.8 bushels per acre, second largest on record. 2018 long grain yield is estimated at 7517 pounds per acre or 167 bushels per acre.
2019/20 U.S. long grain rice beginning stocks (August 1, 2019) are estimated at 34.8 million cwt., 14.5 million cwt. or 71 percent above 2018/19, second highest since 1985.
2019 U.S. long grain rice production is estimated at 141 million cwt., 23 million cwt., 14 percent below 2018/19.
2019/20 U.S. long grain rice total supply is estimated at 199.6 million cwt., 8.2 million cwt., 4 percent below 2018/19.
2019/20 U.S. long grain rice domestic and residual use is estimated at 103 million cwt., which is 2 million cwt., 2 percent below 2018/19, fourth largest on record.
2019/20 U.S. long grain rice total for export is estimated at 70 million cwt, and 2 million cwt. or 3 percent above 2018/19.
2019/20 U.S. long grain rice total use is estimated at 173 million cwt., unchanged from 2018/19 and the sixth largest on record.
2019/20 U.S. long grain rice ending stocks are estimated at 26.6 million cwt., 8.2-million cwt., 24 percent below 2018/19.
The accompanying Slide Show is an extremely important part of this article, so please download and review. Also check: Five factors drive changes in SNAP benefits by Dr. Pat Westhoff, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri and a professor of agricultural and applied economics.
Bobby Coats is a professor and extension economist in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas System, Division of Agriculture, Cooperative Extension Service. E-mail: [email protected]. And is solely responsible for the information provided and is wholly owned by the source. Informa Business Media and all its subsidiaries are not responsible for any of the content contained in this information asset.
Download Slide Show for charts and expanded details, Click Download Link
DISCLAIMER-FOR-EDUCATIONAL-PURPOSES-ONLY
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