First, U.S. production unknowns though improved remain elevated especially for soybeans and corn, and to a lesser degree for cotton and rice. Lateness of planting caused by excessive rain, flooding, etc. during the planting season still raise questions about final production and quality outcome, due to potential emerging droughty conditions, early freeze, tropical storms, etc.

Second, concerns are likely increasingly justifiable that global weather patterns will slowly erode global production and increase export demand for one or more commodities as the 2019/20 global production period progresses.

Third, hope remains trade talks will yield a return to more normal trade relations with China and other trading partners.

First, no one argues the late 2019 planting season has extended the growing season, will culminate in a late harvest period, with yields, overall quality, and production being impacted. The degree of impact is still up for debate. 

Second, changing global weather patterns during the remainder of the 2019/20 marketing period will increasingly place challenges on global producers’ ability to achieve normal production goals. This does and will continue to raise concerns about individual country and collective global food security, which will likely be price supportive. To date global production efficiencies have overcome global production pressures from a variety of sources and limited food security concerns.

Third, trade negotiations especially with China and other trading partners will fall far short of raising demand to pre-tariff levels.  

World Rice Ending Stocks. 2019/20 world rice ending stocks estimated at 172.7 million metric tons is the highest on record, Chart A1.

U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks. 2019/20 long grain rice ending stocks estimated at 19.3 million cwt is 41 percent below the 2018/19 marketing period and 5 percent below 2017/18, Chart A2.

USDA Long Grain Rice Price. 2018/19 and 2019/20 average farm prices are $10.80 per cwt ($4.86 per bushel) and $12.00 per cwt ($5.40 per bushel), respectively, Chart C9.

USDA Medium Grain California Rice Price. 2018/19 and 2019/20 average farm prices are $18.00 per cwt ($8.10 per bushel) and $18.50 per cwt ($8.33 per bushel), respectively, Chart C18.

USDA Medium Grain Southern Rice Price. 2018/19 and 2019/20 average farm prices are $12.30 per cwt ($5.54 per bushel) and $12.50 per cwt ($5.63 per bushel), respectively, Chart C19.

World Soybean Total Supply. 2019/20 world soybean total supply estimated at 602 million metric tons, the second highest on record, only slightly below 2018/19’s 607.5 million metric tons, Chart D8.

World Soybean Ending Stocks. 2019/20 world soybean ending stocks estimated at 99.2 million metric tons, the second highest on record, 11.8 percent below 2018/19’s 112.4 million metric tons, Chart D7.

U.S. Soybean Total Supply. 2019/20 U.S. soybean total supply estimated at 126.8 million metric tons is the third highest on record, but 6.8 percent below 2018/19, Chart D9.

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks. 2019/20 United States ending stocks are estimated at 17.4 million metric tons the second highest on record, 36.2 percent below 2018/19, Chart D11.

World Corn Total Supply. 2019/20 world corn total supply estimated at 1.604 billion metric tons, the second largest on record and consistent with the current four marketing periods, Chart E5.

World Corn Ending Stocks. 2019/20 world corn ending stocks estimated at 306.3 million metric tons, down from the previous four marketing periods, but still the fifth highest on record, Chart E7.

U.S. Corn Total Supply. 2019/20 U.S. corn total supply estimated at 413.9 million metric tons, the fourth largest on record, but down from the previous three marketing periods, Chart E9.  

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks. 2019/20 U. S. corn ending stocks estimated at 55.6 million metric tons is the third highest since 1987, Chart E11.

World Cotton Total Supply. 2019/20 world cotton total supply estimated at 249 million bales, the third highest on record, and the highest in the current five marketing periods, Chart F5.

World Cotton Ending Stocks. 2019/20 world cotton ending stocks estimated at 83.5 million bales, slightly above the three previous marketing periods and the fifth largest on record, Chart F7.

U.S. Cotton Total Supply. 2019/20 U.S. cotton total supply estimated at 26.7 million bales, the fifth highest on record and the highest in the current 12 marketing periods, Chart F9.

U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks. 2019/20 United States cotton ending stocks estimated at 7.2 million bales, the highest in the current 12 marketing periods, fifth highest on record, Chart F11.

World Wheat Total Supply. 2019/20 world wheat total supply estimated at 1.220 billion metric tons, the highest on record, Chart G5.

World Wheat Ending Stocks. 2019/20 world wheat ending stocks estimated at 286.5 million metric tons, the highest on record, Chart G7.

U.S. Wheat Total Supply. 2019/20 U.S. wheat total supply estimated at 86.7 million metric tons, fairly consistent with the current 12 marketing periods, Chart G9.

U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks. 2019/20 U.S. ending stocks declined from 2016/17’s high of 32.1 million metric tons to 2019/20’s 27.6, but remains the fourth highest since 1987/88, Chart G9. 

A1-A16. Global and U.S. Ending Stocks: Rice, Soybean, Corn, Cotton and Wheat Charts (metric tons)

B1-B14. Eleven World Rice and Three United States Charts (metric tons)

C1-C19. U.S. Long and Medium Grain Rice Charts (million cwt.)

D1-D12. Select World and U.S. Soybean Charts (metric tons)

E1-E9. Select World and U.S. Corn Charts (metric tons)

F1-F9. Select World and U.S. Cotton Charts (metric tons)

G1-G9. Select World and U.S. Wheat Charts (metric tons)