Russia severely escalated its war with Ukraine after launching an all-out assault in February 2022. Two and a half years later, Ukraine has done a remarkable job holding its ground against a much more powerful military might, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin promising a swift victory at the war’s onset.

Even so, war has decimated most areas of life in Ukraine, and the conflict has made serious impacts in the country’s agriculture sector.

“Farmers Ukrainian farmers are very resilient and they try to produce as much as they can as they adjust to the current situation,” reports Antonina Broyaka, Ukraine native and Extension professor in the Kansas State University’s Department of Agricultural Economics.

Speaking at a Kansas State-hosted webinar on Ukraine, Broyaka noted the war-torn country continues to be a significant export player of multiple commodities. In the 2024-25 marketing year, Ukraine is expected to be the No. 1 sunflower oil and sunflower meal exporter. It should also come in as the third-largest exporter of canola and corn, the fifth-largest barley exporter and the sixth-largest wheat exporter.

“It's still a top exporter on many agricultural markets, and that is why keeping Ukrainian agriculture moving is extremely important for the world in terms of food security,” according to Broyaka.

War shifts production and market

That’s not to say the country has totally overcome all adversities during the past few years. Ukrainian farmers are facing fuel and labor shortages that will delay this season’s harvest, for example. Russia has also routinely attacked grain silos and other agricultural infrastructure. And only three Ukrainian ports are currently not blocked or outright occupied.

More insidious activity is unfolding: Russians are harvesting grain in occupied areas and adding it to their own coffers. Broyaka says as of mid-September, 4.7 million metric tons of grain has been stolen from occupied territory.

Wartime logistics have also rewritten where Ukrainian grain is exported. The top five prewar destinations in 2020-21 were China, Egypt, Indonesia, the Netherlands and Spain. But in the 2023-24 marketing year, the top five destinations were Spain, Egypt, China, Italy and Turkey.

Fertilizer inputs also plummeted over the past few years, due to a variety of factors that include cost, availability and transportation logistics. For example, Ukrainian wheat farmers applied ammonium nitrate at an average rate of 300 kg per hectare in 2021 but only averaged 190 kg/hectare this year. Corn farmers used an average urea rate of 250 kg/hectare in 2021, which faded to 190 kg/hectare in 2024.

This, among other factors, has led to more Ukrainian farmers planting soybeans, with production increasing almost 38% between 2021 and 2024. And among Ukraine’s top six crops, soybeans are expected to be the most profitable this year, with a potential net return of $83 per metric ton. Sunflower production is second, with a net return of $45 per metric ton. Compare that with winter wheat, which might only net $2 per metric ton this year, and corn, which anticipates net losses of $30 per metric ton.

Broyaka is hopeful that Ukraine’s agriculture sector will be able to recover in the near future.

“Yield is expected to rise due to technology improvements, availability of better seed, application of advanced practices and an increase in affordability of fertilizers,” she says. “Of course, this assumption is made with the belief that the war will be over soon – hopefully by next year.”

A peace brokerage is becoming increasingly possible as the war remains “a bloody stalemate” for both sides, notes Dan Reiter, writing for the New Atlanticist.

“As the staggering costs of war continue to rise, all parties will become increasingly willing to strike a politically painful deal to end the war,” he says.

Click here to watch K-State’s full webinar and review Broyaka’s data-rich slide set.