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Is a trade deal closer than we think?

Keep an eye on soybean purchases, South American production and crush numbers.

I continue to hear talk that China is allowing around 5 MMTs of soybeans to come from the U.S. via October, November, December deliveries from the PNW. There's a ton of speculation regarding how much the Chinese have already purchased, but most sources are thinking between 1 and 2 MMTs. Traders are also noting that the basis around the PNW has clearly started to rise, while the basis in areas of Brazil have started to weaken. 

Here at home, there's continued debate about U.S. production and upcoming demand. Don't forget NOPA crush numbers are scheduled to be released today. Most sources are looking for a number of around 162.0 million bushels which would be more than last month and more than last year. As both a spec and a producer, I remain a longer-term bull. I should note, I am starting to keep a closer eye on upcoming South American weather. I continue to hear talk that Brazil could harvest an extremely large crop in early 2020 should the weather cooperate. It sounds like there's been more acres opened up and a larger switch to soybeans. 

Technically, most inside the trade still see the $9.10 to $9.25 area as tough resistance for the NOV19 contract. I would certainly love to see a close back above this area.

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The opinions of Kevin Van Trump are not necessarily those of Corn and Soybean Digest or Farm Progress.

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TAGS: Soybean
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