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Keep an eye on soybean purchases, South American production and crush numbers.

Kevin Van Trump, Founder

September 16, 2019

1 Min Read
bullish vs bearish
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I continue to hear talk that China is allowing around 5 MMTs of soybeans to come from the U.S. via October, November, December deliveries from the PNW. There's a ton of speculation regarding how much the Chinese have already purchased, but most sources are thinking between 1 and 2 MMTs. Traders are also noting that the basis around the PNW has clearly started to rise, while the basis in areas of Brazil have started to weaken. 

Here at home, there's continued debate about U.S. production and upcoming demand. Don't forget NOPA crush numbers are scheduled to be released today. Most sources are looking for a number of around 162.0 million bushels which would be more than last month and more than last year. As both a spec and a producer, I remain a longer-term bull. I should note, I am starting to keep a closer eye on upcoming South American weather. I continue to hear talk that Brazil could harvest an extremely large crop in early 2020 should the weather cooperate. It sounds like there's been more acres opened up and a larger switch to soybeans. 

Technically, most inside the trade still see the $9.10 to $9.25 area as tough resistance for the NOV19 contract. I would certainly love to see a close back above this area.

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The opinions of Kevin Van Trump are not necessarily those of Corn and Soybean Digest or Farm Progress.

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About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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