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Swift's Market Comments

Time to wait on the markets

Swift Trading Co. feeder cattle chart
An Elliott wave 2 retracement on this feeder cattle chart appears to be in play. The oscillator does not need to go to zero before it turns back up, and feedyard desire to own inventory could limit the retracement in price.
Demand still appears strong and the basis needs to aggregate with futures as each month goes into futures delivery.

With prices slightly firmer this morning, it helps lend some credibility to the analysis that a marking of time is at hand.

The recent price move has been exciting to producers. I would urge you to not allow this most recent excitement sway you from what I perceive is transpiring. That is, the aggregation of the basis as each expiring contract month goes into delivery.

What we've seen so far is a softening of the box price, which has halted the advancement of fat price. That is it so far. This event is anticipated to last for another couple of weeks in which cash, futures, and boxes are anticipated to trade back and forth, marking time, until after the seasonal weakness subsides and post-Easter grilling begins in earnest.

I've seen nothing yet that leads me to anticipate a decline in the most recent consumer demand gained. Longhorn and Outback steakhouses have been upping their advertisements. The rain moves out and warmer weather moves in later this week in the northeast. As this is where the people are, I would perceive this as a positive factor for beef consumption.

I perceive box prices hold the key at this time. Were they to not back up much, it would continue to leave the back months looking exceptionally discount for the current environment. These will be some nerve-testing times the next couple of weeks; have patience. 

In the feeder cattle charts, a primary Elliott wave 2 appears to be in play. I do not anticipate the oscillator on the daily chart to go all the way back to the zero line. It does not need to in order to confirm anything. On the hourly chart though, the oscillator is below the zero line.

This is still too early to decipher much of anything, but from the looks of the market so far, the correction is unfolding as close to anticipated as could imagine. Time is needed, but the anxiousness of yards to want to own inventory is elevated. This may keep the retracement in price to a minimum.

An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits. You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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