is part of the Division of Informa PLC

This site is operated by a business or businesses owned by Informa PLC and all copyright resides with them. Informa PLC's registered office is 5 Howick Place, London SW1P 1WG. Registered in England and Wales. Number 8860726.

  • American Agriculturist
  • Beef Producer
  • Corn and Soybean Digest
  • Dakota Farmer
  • Delta Farm Press
  • Farm Futures
  • Farm Industry news
  • Indiana Prairie Farmer
  • Kansas Farmer
  • Michigan Farmer
  • Missouri Ruralist
  • Nebraska Farmer
  • Ohio Farmer
  • Prairie Farmer
  • Southeast Farm Press
  • Southwest Farm Press
  • The Farmer
  • Wallaces Farmer
  • Western Farm Press
  • Western Farmer Stockman
  • Wisconsin Agriculturist
Corn+Soybean Digest

Time to Sell Old- and New-Crop Soybeans?

USDA’s Crop Progress report Monday documented what weather-weary farmers have experienced with planters idled by wet, wet fields. Soybean planting is 17% behind a five-year average. But how long can delayed planting continue to hold soybean prices at their current levels?

Only 57% of soybeans were in the ground, USDA said, compared to a 74% average from 2008-2012. More than 90% of soybeans were planted by June 2, 2012. Still, after old- and new-crop soybean futures continued their rally with a 19.25¢/bu. to 22.50¢ jump in prices Monday, markets opened lower Tuesday.

November 2013 beans were off 15¢ at $13.10/bu. in early trades. July 2013 was down 4¢ at $15.28. The $15+ price for July and near $14.50 for August illustrate how soybean supplies remain tight, but not yet scarce enough to create major price swings, says Ed Usset, University of Minnesota Extension grain marketing specialist.

“Soybean prices have been remarkably stable since harvest, trading in a 10% range,” Usset says. “Prices are currently towards the high end of the range. At this point, hanging on to old crop or shying away from new-crop sales is a pure weather play – a bet that poor growing conditions will propel prices even higher.

“This, of course, is always a possibility. But I am ever reluctant to bet against the productive capabilities of the Corn Belt.”

 

Like what you're reading? Subscribe to Soybean E-Digest and get the latest news right to your inbox!

 

Tuesday morning all soybean futures prices were above the $12.87 Revenue Protection insurance. But how will summer weather impact prices? That annual question can have many answers.

“The inverse in the soybean and corn markets I wrote about two months ago still exists,” Usset says. “In Southern Minnesota, for example, the spot price of soybeans is $2.30/bu. higher than the new-crop bid.

“This price difference will evaporate over the next 75 days. The $64,000 question is whether new-crop bids rise to meet spot prices, or if spot prices collapse to new-crop levels. Holders of old-crop and reluctant new-crop sellers are betting on the former.

“But the more likely scenario is the latter.”

 

You might also like:

New Crop Scouting, Farm Management Apps

Evaluate Prevented Planting Payments for Corn

Nitrogen Needs for the 2013 Corn Crop

Hide comments

Comments

  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <blockquote> <br> <p>

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
Publish