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Stay patient in the soybean market

fotokostic/iStock/ThinkStock soybean field
Soybean bears focus on improved South America moisture and bulls are backpedaling.

Soybean bears continue to talk about improved moisture in the forecast for South America, particular parts of southern Brazil and some dry areas of Argentina. Demand bulls are also backpedaling a bit on talk of weaker Chinese crush margins, meaning perhaps weaker nearby demand than originally forecast. I'm also hearing longer-term bears talk about increasing DDGS demand as the Chinese start ramping up ethanol production.

Van Trump Report

Thoughts are perhaps growth in soy demand slows a bit during the next two years as end-users are able to substitute a portion with the ethanol byproduct. This is obviously out on the horizon but is certainly something we have to think about and keep in the back of our minds. The global balance sheets are extremely healthy and banking on continued growth in Chinese demand.

Here at home, I continue to hear talk that exports are currently overstated and the balance sheet could get a bit more burdensome in the year-end report. I also keep hearing early talk that the U.S. planted soybean acres could again set yet another record in 2018. Obviously, that ultimately depends on the weather, but as things are setting up, U.S. producers could continue to plant more soybean acres. Hence, without a significant weather story, the bulls have a hard time gaining and keeping traction.

The "technicals" are also creating some headwinds, as the market is under pressure and now teetering on levels of important support. As a producer, I continue to keep hedges in place and am happy to have made a couple of sales on the previous rally. I feel like I have a ton of time on the clock and absolutely no desire to get in any type of hurry.

As a spec, I'm going to keep paying close attention and look to perhaps grab a few cheap calls on a deeper break. Being short from the upper end of the range made some sense, but I'm not a big fan of shorting a breakout to the downside. It just seems like it could be tough to navigate when money starts rotating again.

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TAGS: Corn Soybeans
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