As of mid-February, Dec’20 corn futures have traded in a narrow 15 cent range, from a high of $4.04½ on the first business day of the year, to a low of $3.89½ in early February. Time will tell if this narrow range holds through the end of March.

The AMJ (April-May-June) high in the December new crop contract has exceeded the JFM (Jan-Feb-Mar) high in each of the last six years (2014-19). This is the longest consecutive streak since 1980, the first year I started tracking.

Does the AMJ high always take out the JFM high? Of course not. Since 1990, the AMJ high has exceeded the JFM high in 7 of 10 years (70%). I would like make broad generalizations about years when the AMJ high fails to exceed the JFM high. For example, I note that in 2007, 2010 and 2013 – the most recent years when the AMJ high was less than the JFM high – new crop futures entered the new year at a “high” price (i.e., there was more opportunity to trade lower). However, this does not explain 1997-99, three consecutive years when Dec futures entered the new year at a not-so-high price and proceeded to trade even lower. The late 1990s was a noteworthy bear market in grains – please don’t tell that the current bear is as large and persistent as that bear.

Here is an encouraging note: the AMJ high in the December corn contract has exceeded the JFM low every year since 1980. Will $3.89½ be the AMJ low?

And another encouraging note: the Dec contract high in the first half of the year (Jan-Jun) has occurred in the months of January and February in only 4 of the past 30 years.