All eyes were on USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report that was released Thursday morning, but the data the agency served up did little to bump the markets in either a positive or negative direction, although corn futures fell into the red following a smaller-than-expected cut to USDA's projected 2024/25 U.S. ending stocks and an increase to expected production.

Corn, soybean and wheat futures briefly sold off following the release of the WASDE report but quickly bounced back. December CBOT wheat pulled back from two-month highs overnight but is on track for a fourth straight daily gain. Initial pressure on corn futures stemmed from a smaller-than-expected cut to USDA's projected 2024/25 U.S. ending stocks and an increase to expected production.

One interesting takeaway from today’s report is that USDA has largely shrugged off recent drought trends and minor cuts to corn and soybean crop quality in recent weeks. The agency slightly raised its estimates for 2024 corn production to 15.186 billion bushels – a near-record. USDA trimmed 3 million bushels from estimated U.S. soybean production, to 4.586 billion bushels, thought that would still be a record.

Corn

USDA’s corn outlook showed a modest production increase from 15.157 billion bushels in August up to 15.186 billion bushels. Analysts were expecting the agency to move that number in the opposite direction after offering an average trade guess of 15.076 billion bushels. USDA also unexpectedly raised its estimates for per-acre yields to 183.6 bushels per acre.

USDA reduced its outlook for ending 2024/25 corn stockpiles to 2.057 billion bushels from 2.073 billion bushels in August, but analysts on average expected a downward revision closer to 2.02 billion bushels. Estimated ending stocks are up more than 13% from 2023/24 and would be the highest in six years.

The season-average price for farmers faded another 10 cents lower, to $4.10 per bushel.

USDA made no changes to its expectations for South American corn production. That leaves Brazilian estimates at 4.803 billion bushels and Argentine estimates at 1.968 billion bushels. Global ending stocks for 2024/25 decreased from 310.17 million metric tons in August down to 308.35 MMT in September. That was below the average trade guess of 309.39 MMT.

December corn futures are now on track for a sharp reversal lower. The new crop contract climbed to nearly $4.10 overnight before tumbling as low as $3.97, a near two-week low, following the WASDE report.

Soybeans

USDA slightly reduced its estimates for 2024 U.S. soybean production to 4.586 billion bushels while holding per-acre yields steady at 53.2 bpa. Analysts were not expecting to see production changes from August’s volume of 4.589 billion bushels.

The agency held steady its soybean crush and export expectations steady, meantime, with ending stocks sinking 10 million bushels lower to 550 million bushels this month. The season-average farm price remained unchanged, at $10.80 per bushel.

South American production was steady to slightly lower. USDA left Brazilian production estimates unchanged, at 5.622 billion bushels, while Argentine production eased to 1.767 billion bushels. Brazil’s forecasted 2024/25 soybean crop could rise to 6.210 billion bushels, which would be a year-over-year increase of 10.5% and an all-time record, if realized.

Global ending stocks for 2024/25 increased slightly, to 134.58 million metric tons, with analysts expecting to see a modest reduction to 133.86 MMT.

Wheat

USDA’s latest outlook for wheat showed steady ending stocks at 828 million bushels, along with an unchanged season-average price of $5.70 per bushel.

Global ending stocks for 2024/25 increased from 256.62 million metric tons in August up to 257.22 MMT this month. That bucked analyst expectations, with the average trade guess sliding down to 255.31 MMT.