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November 2012 WASDE: Corn, Soybean Ending Stocks Up, Prices Down

November 2012 WASDE: Corn, Soybean Ending Stocks Up, Prices Down



U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012-2013 are projected slightly higher with small increases forecast for corn and sorghum production and higher projected corn imports. Forecast corn production for 2012-2013 is raised 19 million bushels with a 0.3-bu. increase in the corn yield to 122.3 bu./acre. Projected corn imports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting expectations for more shipments, particularly into the southeastern feed market, which ordinarily relies heavily on supplies from the eastern Corn Belt. Corn food, seed and industrial use for 2012-2013 is raised 17 million bushels with higher use projected for sweeteners and starch.

Corn ending stocks are projected 28 million bushels higher at 647 million. The season-average farm price for corn, at $6.95-8.25/bu., is projected 20¢ lower at the midpoint, mostly reflecting a lower-than-expected September price and the continuation of weakness in cash and deferred futures prices over the past month.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012-2013 are projected 1.8 million tons higher with larger corn carry-in stocks for EU-27 and Mexico, and higher corn production in the United States. Corn production for 2011-2012 is raised 0.9 million tons and 0.6 million tons, respectively, for EU-27 and Mexico. Additional increases for South Africa, Guatemala, and Brazil boost global corn production 2.7 million tons to a record 880.5 million for 2011-2012. Global coarse grain production for 2012-2013 is raised 0.9 million tons with a number of largely offsetting foreign changes made this month.

Global 2012-2013 corn output is raised 0.7 million tons to 839.7 million. Despite the sharp drop year to year, 2012-2013 production is projected to be the second highest on record supported by record-high foreign output. Corn production is raised 0.6 million tons for Guatemala, 0.5 million tons for Russia, and 0.4 million tons each for Indonesia and Turkey. Corn production is lowered 1.0 million tons for EU-27 and 0.8 million tons for Mexico.

Global 2012-2013 corn imports are raised 2.8 million tons with increases for EU-27, United States, South Korea and Mexico. Russia corn exports are raised 0.3 million tons for the 2012-2013 marketing year. Also supporting higher 2012-2013 marketing year imports are higher 2011-2012 marketing year exports for Brazil and South Africa, up 2.0 million tons and 0.3 million tons, respectively. (The 2011-2012 marketing years for Brazil and South Africa run through the end of February 2013 and April 2013, respectively.) Sorghum imports for 2012/13 are raised 0.2 million tons for Mexico with exports for Argentina raised the same amount. Barley imports for 2012/13 are raised 0.5 million tons for Iran supported by increases for EU-27 and Russia exports. Global corn feeding is raised 3.1 million tons with increases for EU-27, Indonesia, South Korea, Guatemala, and Russia. World corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 0.7 million tons higher at 118.0 million.



Total U.S. oilseed production for 2012-2013 is projected at 91.4 million tons, up 3.2 million from last month due to higher soybean, peanut and cottonseed production. Soybean production is forecast at 2.971 billion bushels, up 111 million from last month. The soybean yield is forecast at 39.3 bu./acre, up 1.5 bu. as several states show the benefit of late-season rainfall. Soybean crush is raised 20 million bushels to 1.56 billion based on increased soybean meal export prospects. Soybean exports are raised 80 million bushels to 1.345 billion reflecting larger supplies and the strong pace of sales through October. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 140 million bushels, up 10 million from last month.

Soybean oil supplies for 2012-2013 are raised this month as increased production more than offsets lower beginning stocks. Soybean oil domestic use is projected at 18 billion pounds with biodiesel use projected at 4.9 billion pounds. Soybean oil stocks are raised 250 million pounds to 1.52 billion on increased supplies. Prices for soybeans and products are all reduced this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $13.90-15.90/bu., down 35¢ on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $455-485/short ton, down $15 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 51-55¢/lb., down 2¢ on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2012-2013 is projected at 462.1 million tons, up 4.4 million tons from last month. Global soybean production accounts for about 75% of the increase with larger crops projected the United States and Ukraine. Increased harvested area and yields are projected for Ukraine as harvest nears completion.

Global oilseed trade for 2012-2013 is projected at 114.7 million tons, up 2.4 million with increased soybean exports projected for the United States and Ukraine. Soybean imports are raised for several countries including China, Taiwan, EU-27 and Turkey. Global oilseed crush is raised 3.3 million tons to 392.4 million with higher projections for soybean crush in China, the United States and EU-27, higher sunflowerseed crush in Ukraine and higher rapeseed crush in China and Belarus. Increased crush results in higher projections for global vegetable oil and oil-meal production, trade, use and stocks.


Read the full November 2012 WASDE report from USDA.

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