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May 2013 WASDE: Corn, Soybean Production, Supply Estimates Up, Prices Down




U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013-2014 are projected at a record 400.5 million tons, up 25% from 2012-2013 with higher area and yields expected for corn, sorghum and oats. Corn production for 2013-2014 is projected at 14.1 billion bushels, up 3.4 billion from 2012-2013 when extreme drought and heat reduced yields to their lowest levels since 1995-1996. The 2013-2014 corn yield is projected at 158.0 bu./acre, 5.6 bu. below the weather adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February(pdf). The slow start to this year’s planting and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well behind the 10-year average reduce prospects for yields. Corn supplies for 2013-2014 are projected at a record 14.9 billion bushels, up 3.0 billion from 2012-2013.

U.S. corn use for 2013-2014 is projected up 16% from 2012-2013 on higher feed and residual disappearance, increased use for ethanol, sweeteners and starch, and a partial recovery in exports. Feed and residual use for 2013-2014 is projected up 925 million bushels reflecting a sharp rebound in residual disappearance with the record crop and an increase in feeding with lower corn prices. Projected corn use for ethanol is increased 250 million bushels from this month’s higher projection for 2012/13. Lower corn prices and high prices for Renewable Identification Numbers (RINS) support profitability for ethanol producers.

U.S. corn exports for 2013-2014 are projected 550 million bushels higher than this month’s lower projection for 2012-2013. At the projected 1.3 billion bushels, 2013-2014 exports are expected to rebound from their lowest level since 1970-1971. An expected fourth straight year of record foreign corn production with large crops in South America and the FSU-12 will provide substantial competition for the United States. U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 2.0 billion bushels, up 1.2 billion from 2012-2013. The season-average farm price at $4.30-5.10/bu. is down sharply from the record $6.70-7.10 for 2012-2013.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013-2014 are projected at a record 1,407.6 million tons, up 113.8 million from 2012/13. Global corn production for 2013-2014 is projected at a record 965.9 million tons. Foreign corn production is up 23.5 million tons. The largest increases are projected for the FSU-12, EU-27 and China, but large crops are again expected in 2013-2014 for Brazil and Argentina. Global corn trade is projected higher with increased imports for China more than offsetting a reduction for EU-27. Spurred by lower prices, smaller year-to-year import increases are projected for a number of countries. Exports are lowered for Brazil, India and Argentina, but raised for Ukraine and EU-27. World corn consumption is projected at a record 936.7 million tons, up 72.8 million from 2012-2013 with foreign consumption up 41.5 million. Global corn ending stocks for 2013-2014 are projected up 29.2 million tons on the year. At 154.6 million tons, stocks would be a 13-year high.


U.S. oilseed production for 2013-2014 is projected at 100.9 million tons, up 9% from 2012-2013. Higher soybean production accounts for most of the increase. Sunflowerseed, peanut and cottonseed production are each projected below last year’s crops. Soybean production is projected at a record 3.390 billion bushels, up 375 million from the drought-reduced 2012 crop on slightly higher harvested area and higher yields. Soybean yields are projected at a weather-adjusted trend level of 44.5 bu./acre, up 4.9 bu. from 2012. Soybean supplies are projected at 3.530 billion bushels, up 10% from 2012/13. Additional soybean meal exports for 2012-2013 are offset by reduced domestic consumption, leaving crush unchanged. Soybean exports and ending stocks for 2012-2013 are also unchanged from last month.

The 2013-2014 U.S. soybean crush is projected at 1.695 billion bushels, up 60 million from 2012-2013 reflecting increased domestic soybean meal consumption and exports. Despite increased competition from South America, U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast higher on sharply lower prices. Soybean exports are projected at 1.450 billion bushels, up 100 million from 2012-2013 on increased supplies and competitive prices.

Ending stocks are projected at 265 million bushels, up 140 million from 2012-2013. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2013-2014 is forecast at $9.50-11.50/bu. compared with $14.30 in 2012-2013. Soybean meal and oil prices are forecast at $280-320/short ton and 47-51¢/lb., respectively.

Global oilseed production for 2013-2014 is projected at a record 491.3 million tons, up 4.7% from 2012-2013 mainly due to increased soybean production. Global soybean production is projected at 285.5 million tons, up 6%. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54.5 million tons, up 3.5 million from 2012-2013 on record planted area and higher yields. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 85 million tons as higher harvested area more than offsets lower yields. China soybean production is projected at 12 million tons, down 0.6 million from 2012-2013 as producers continue to shift area to more profitable crops. If realized, harvested area at 6.6 million hectares would be down 28% in the past four years. Oilseed supplies are up 5.1% from 2012-2013. With crush projected to increase 3.4%, global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 82.6 million tons, up 12.3 million.

Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 2.7% in 2013-2014. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.3% in China, accounting for 32 percent of global protein consumption gains. Global soybean exports are projected at 107.1 million tons, up 11.3% from 2012-2013. China soybean imports are projected at 69 million tons, up 10 million from the revised 2012-2013 projection, leaving soybean supplies up 5 million tons from the previous year.

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