July 31, 2018
Soybean prices are higher to start the day, knocking on the door of $9.00 per bushel. Bulls are talking about a little weather uncertainty in parts of the U.S., and continued strength in U.S. demand, despite lack of Chinese buying.
The USDA’s most recent weekly export inspections showed +740,000 MT's for last week, which is up about +50% from last year. Bulls are also talking about Argentine crushers looking to purchase more U.S. soybeans. There's been some talk inside the trade that Argentina will actually become the world's second largest importer of soybeans in 2018, behind only China.
This is the game changer the bulls were discussing a few months back, when the trade first learned of the weather complications and production hiccups in Argentina this past growing season. As I mentioned, eventually that bird has to come to roost. We are now starting to see those headlines recirculate and actually offset some of the uncertainties and negativity surrounding trade conflicts. Technically, the trade continues to believe the $9.00 to $9.20 area will be tougher ground for the bulls to move beyond.
Here at home, the trade is also trying to debate and determine U.S. yield. Similar to corn, there are some bulls who are surprised to see the crop-condition estimate left "unchanged" on the week at 70% rated "Good-to-Excellent".
States where conditions deteriorated: Tennessee -10%; Louisiana and Missouri -8%; Arkansas and Kentucky -5%; Illinois, Kansas and Ohio -3%; North Dakota and Wisconsin; Minnesota -1%. States where conditions have improved: North Carolina +9%; Mississippi +5%; South Dakota +4%; Michigan +3%; and Iowa +1%.
About the Author(s)
Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead.
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