The U.S. hog industry is in a balancing act — input costs seem to be lowering and traditional seasonal demand should lend itself to higher pork consumption in the second half of the year.

On the opposite end of the scale are risks that RaboResearch points out in a recently released quarterly report. As always seems to be the case, geopolitical dynamics are at work against the hog industry, and the RaboResearch team at Rabobank finds that will once again be the case.

Global pork trade has been impacted by the U.S.-China trade war that began in 2018, and the outcome of this fall’s presidential election could bring with it changes in our country’s trade policy, as well as uncertainty in global trade.

Also at play, as pointed out by in the Rabobank report, are the concerns raised by China’s antidumping probe into European Union pork imports, and the potential vulnerability that action presents to global trade.

Supply and demand always drive markets, and RaboResearch points out that that balance varies by global region. For example, the bullet points for North America are:

Meanwhile, in China:

And in Brazil:

Similar breakdowns for other global regions present issues specific to those areas, yet are shared globally in terms of hog inventory, household consumption and inflationary caution.

Chenjun Pan, animal protein senior analyst at RaboResearch, postulates that pork supply will increase in some regions such as the EU and the United States, adding, “Sow herd recovery will likely be faster than expected, especially in the EU and China. Productivity gains will continue despite recurrent disease issues in some regions.”

Take care of home

Keeping an eye on the industry as a whole, producers need to control what they can, and that starts with the latter part of Pan’s comment above. A healthy U.S. swine industry, of course, starts with healthy pigs.

Healthy pigs have better performance and productivity, resulting in a healthy pork supply for consumers.

Achieving that result requires the entire production chain working in unison, from the researchers, veterinarians, barn workers, truckers, and those on the line at processing facilities.

Once healthy hogs are ready to be marketed — or actually before that point — producers need to find the best possible spot for their end product. Though a large number of hogs are raised under contract with, or directly owned by, packers, there are still a fair number of hogs raised by independent producers.

Independent producers may experience more risk compared to growers who raise hogs for a packer, and they definitely need to sharpen their pencils when it comes to marketing their hogs. Marketing can be difficult, and even confusing, but it is necessary lest you are leaving money on the table.

Keep in mind, every producer has a different comfort level when it comes to marketing, and not every marketing mechanism will work for every producer.

Do your homework to ensure that your healthy hogs are recouping you a healthy bottom line.

Schulz grew up on the family hog farm in southern Minnesota before a career in ag journalism, including National Hog Farmer.