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Prospective Plantings report shows little reason for commodity market improvement.

Here are the latest ag commodity fundamentals 

Supply and planting intentions weigh on commodity prices

Grain, rice and cotton fundamentals are weighing heavily on the global commodity markets and the recent USDA Prospective Plantings report did little to improve hope for better price outlooks for the remainder of current and the 2020/21 marketing periods. That assumes no external shocks to global supply.

Global grain and cotton production continues to outstrip demand. China continues to at least imply they hold a major portion of global stocks. (Major slide deck is attached)

Visualization through the accompanying supply and demand slide show is crucial to review along with my comments. Key slides have been replicated and moved to the front of the slide show, Charts A1-A27. The slide show has 150 slides covering soybeans, corn, rice, cotton, and wheat, so download and review. 

Soybeans

  • World Soybean Total Supply. 2019/20 world soybean total supply estimated at 604 million metric tons, the highest on record. Chart C5.
  • World Soybean Ending Stocks. 2019/20 world soybean ending stocks estimated at 102 million metric tons the 2nd highest on record. Chart C7.
  • U.S. Soybean Total Supply. 2019/20 U.S. soybean total supply estimated at 122 million metric tons, the 4th highest on record. Chart C9.
  • U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks. 2019/20 United States ending stocks are estimated at 11.6 million metric tons the 7th highest on record. Chart C15.
  • South American Total Supply. 2019/20 South American soybean total supply estimated at 261 million metric tons, the highest on record. Chart C13.
  • South American Ending Stocks. 2019/20 South American ending stocks are estimated at 61.9 million metric tons the 3rd highest on record. Chart C15.
  • China Soybean Ending Stocks. 2019/20 China soybean ending stocks estimated at 21.7 million metric tons, the 2nd highest on record. Chart C16.

Corn

  • World Corn Total Supply. 2019/20 world corn total supply estimated at 1.600 billion metric tons, the 2nd largest on record. Chart D5.
  • World Corn Ending Stocks. 2019/20 world corn ending stocks estimated at 297 million metric tons, down from the previous 4 marketing periods but still the 5th highest on record. Chart D7.
  • U.S. Corn Total Supply. 2019/20 U.S. corn total supply estimated at 406 million metric tons, the 4th largest on record. Chart D9.  
  • U.S. Corn Ending Stocks. 2019/20 U. S. corn ending stocks estimated at 48 million metric tons, the 7th highest since 1987. Chart D11.
  • South American Corn Total Supply. 2019/20 South American corn total supply estimated at 188.2 million metric tons, the 2nd largest on record. Chart D13.
  • South American Corn Ending Stocks. 2019/20 South American corn ending stocks estimated at 10.5 million metric tons, the 11th highest on record. Chart D15.

Rice

  • World Rice Total Supply. 2019/20 world rice total supply estimated at 713.9 million metric tons the highest on record. Chart B7.
  • World Rice Ending Stocks. 2019/20 world rice ending stocks estimated at 178 million metric tons the highest on record. Chart B10.
  • U.S. Long Grain Total Supply. 2019/20 U.S all rice total supply estimated at 8.3 million metric tons. Chart B13.
  • U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks. 2019/20 U. S. all rice ending stocks estimated at 9.5 million metric tons. Chart B14.
  • China Rice Total Supply. 2019/20 China total rice supply estimated at 264 million metric tons, the highest on record. Chart B16.
  • China Rice Ending Stocks. 2019/20 China total rice ending stocks estimated at 118 million metric tons the highest on record. Chart B18.

Cotton

  • World Cotton Total Supply. 2019/20 world cotton total supply estimated at 245 million bales, the 4th highest on record. Chart E5.
  • World Cotton Ending Stocks. 2019/20 world cotton ending stocks estimated at 82.1 million bales, slightly above the 3-previous marketing periods and the 5th largest on record. Chart E7.
  • U.S. Cotton Total Supply. 2019/20 U.S. cotton total supply estimated at 25 million bales, the 6th highest on record and the highest in the current 12 marketing periods. Chart E9.
  • U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks. 2019/20 United States cotton ending stocks estimated at 5.4 million bales, the highest in the current 11 marketing periods. Chart E11.
  • China Cotton Ending Stocks. 2019/20 China cotton ending stocks estimated at 34 million bales, the lowest in the current 8 marketing periods. Chart E12.
  • India Cotton Ending Stocks. 2019/20 Indian cotton ending stocks estimated at 13 million bales, the highest on record. Chart E13.
  • South American Cotton Ending Stocks. 2019/20 South American cotton ending stocks estimated at 13.3 million bales. the highest on record, Chart E14.

Wheat

  • World Wheat Total Supply. 2019/20 world wheat total supply estimated at 1.22 billion metric tons, the highest on record. Chart F5.
  • World Wheat Ending Stocks. 2019/20 world wheat ending stocks estimated at 288 million metric tons, the highest on record. Chart F7.
  • U.S. Wheat Total Supply. 2019/20 U.S. wheat total supply estimated at 84.5 million metric tons. Chart F9.
  • U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks. 2019/20 U.S. ending stocks declined from a high in 2016/17’s 32.1 million tons to 2019/20’s 25.6 but remains the 8th highest since 1987/88. Chart F11. 

  Accompanying fundamental chart book index

  • A1-A27. Global, Select Countries, and U.S. Ending Stocks for Soybean, Corn, Rice, Cotton and Wheat Charts (metric tons)
  • B1-B42. Select World, China, India, and United States Rice (metric tons); U.S. Long and Medium Grain Rice Charts (million cwt.)
  • C1-C16. Select World, U.S., South America, and China Soybean Charts (metric tons)
  • D1-D16. Select World, U.S., South America, and China Corn Charts (metric tons)
  • E1-E14. Select World, U.S., China, India, and South America Cotton Charts (metric tons)
  • F1-G18. Select World, U.S., China, India, Argentina, Canada, European Union, and Ukraine Wheat Charts (metric tons)

No crystal ball

Since no one has a crystal ball or knows the future always consult an investment professional or professionals before making investment decisions. The world’s greatest speculators, investors and money managers are challenged by today’s global business environment.  

Source: Bobby Coats is an economist with the Arkansas Department of Agriculture. E-mail: robert.coats@agriculture.arkansas.gov and is solely responsible for the information provided and is wholly owned by the source. Informa Business Media and all its subsidiaries are not responsible for any of the content contained in this information asset.

Download Slide Show for charts and expanded details, Click Download Link

DISCLAIMER-FOR-EDUCATIONAL-PURPOSES-ONLY

 

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